Richard Farr @farrmacro
Chief Market Strategist, Merion Capital Group. Always seeking truth / assessing risks. My opinions only. Not sufficient for investment advice. Do the work! merioncapitalgroup.com Joined January 2017-
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Two Year Treasury yield is telling you that there won’t be any rate cuts any time soon. This will increasing become problematic for over-leveraged consumers. Watch those consumer discretionary stocks … cracks are emerging.
The university system is broken. Exorbitant costs. Garbage degrees and useless programs. Administrators over educators. Politicized research grants and agendas. The top schools are now laughable. We need a system that deemphasizes this waste of time and resources. If you know…
The university system is broken. Exorbitant costs. Garbage degrees and useless programs. Administrators over educators. Politicized research grants and agendas. The top schools are now laughable. We need a system that deemphasizes this waste of time and resources. If you know…
Amazing how long it takes for things to develop sometimes.
Tend to agree. That was some real undisciplined slop last night.
Tend to agree. That was some real undisciplined slop last night.
BREAKING: US official tells ABC News that Israel conducted airstrikes on a target in Iran
Oh it will be bumpy. Usually they break things on the way.
Oh it will be bumpy. Usually they break things on the way.
Why would anyone wait in line at City Hall unless they thought they would get something out of it
Why would anyone wait in line at City Hall unless they thought they would get something out of it
And soon they start thinking about hikes
Hawkish. Here’s the deal .. some things work with lags. Other things don’t. Consumer / homebuyer learning to live with higher rates. They’ll switch jobs if needed or raise prices. Which means impact of prior rate hikes has weakened. Also, as rates go up, financing costs go…
Hawkish. Here’s the deal .. some things work with lags. Other things don’t. Consumer / homebuyer learning to live with higher rates. They’ll switch jobs if needed or raise prices. Which means impact of prior rate hikes has weakened. Also, as rates go up, financing costs go…
And we wonder about gold politico.com/news/2024/04/1…
"3 Chinese asset managers have received initial approval to offer ETFs backed by spot virtual assets such as #Bitcoin & #Ether in Hong Kong, part of the city’s ongoing efforts to turn itself into a global #cryptocurrency hub" caixinglobal.com/2024-04-15/chi…
Little doubt in my mind the NFL has this problem. You can see the lame 'roughing the passer' calls and holding calls (and non-calls) in plain sight now. Worst officiating we've ever had. Maybe because it's intentional? mediaite.com/sports/shaq-sh…
Rates are everything.
Thanks for the mention, @ungarino We think the end of the BTFP, along with rising rates and deteriorating delinquencies are going to create problems for consumer discretionary, as well as, some of the lesser-capitalized banks. barrons.com/articles/jpmor…
Slightly less compelling story when you have a $9 / day Starbucks in your hand. But the math holds nonetheless.
Slightly less compelling story when you have a $9 / day Starbucks in your hand. But the math holds nonetheless.
Fighter jets over Tel Aviv.
It’s pretty accurate. Now add on “genie out of the bottle” syndrome. Greed. Things needing to play catch-up (see NJ transit hike this week). Add on some int’l turmoil. Add on demographics. Add on the stimulus train has momentum. Add on household balance sheets got…
It’s pretty accurate. Now add on “genie out of the bottle” syndrome. Greed. Things needing to play catch-up (see NJ transit hike this week). Add on some int’l turmoil. Add on demographics. Add on the stimulus train has momentum. Add on household balance sheets got…
Michael Taylor @Mike_Taylor1972
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8K Followers 476 Following Helping you stay informed with real-time ⚡️ breaking news coverage! We bring you updates as events unfold! Buy Me a Coffee ☕️ https://t.co/uMKAn4zyjx@novogratz Useless liberal bureaucrats creating useless positions to support the Bolshevik group they are part of
@novogratz @BillAckman If you arbitrarily fired half the administration, there would likely be no perceivable decline in student performance.
@novogratz @BillAckman Universities need to be underwriting student loans. Change my mind.
@lporiginalg I'm just going to use leeches.
well look at that: the first non-zero sum, synergistic war
Iran’s Attack on Israel Raises Fears of a Wider War, but All Sides Have Also Scored Gains japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/news-services/…
@farrmacro fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS1203… fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS1203… PT for economic reasons is Ok (up a little). It is the PT for non-economic reasons that is up BIG time. I am not at all sure that the big incr in PT for non-economic reasons is dispositive of a weak econ. Fintwit is too bearish
@farrmacro My father died in 2018. He. wanted us to pay down our mortgages. Left some money. While it made little sense to pay off a a<4% mortgage, I had to honor my father’s wish.
@farrmacro Sorry iron ore is $50bn deflation, oil is $390bn inflation.
Celebrating my Houston Cougars and @MarchMadnessMBB with my daughter and friends in Dallas. So proud of my gritty, tough Coogs!
@ag76_biotech @LynAldenContact I thought Powell was a touch overoptimistic in the presser. But I’m less worried about actions than words. And absent the data proving his thesis right they are not going to cut rates.
@jasonfurman @LynAldenContact Well Jason, in case you didn’t hear Powell’s last presser, he is dismissing hot prints as just bumpy road to 2%, it’s election year and the Fed is now officially data independent
🔥Fix Your SWAY🔥 If you suffer from a sway pattern in your backswing, this is the drill for you! One of the more common swing tendencies I see from golfers and this drill certainly helps get rid of it! If you’d like even more information on a sway pattern, I’ve created a…
My friend just closed a big business deal that I sent his way. He gave me this bottle of whiskey at closing that I had never heard of before. I think I like it. Thoughts?
@CollinRugg Bars are always a solid choice when choosing a place to have a philosophical conversation.
@farrmacro this, not just small banks, he's worried about the big boys...x.com/m3_melody/stat…
"According to the chart below...past due loans on commercial real estate at the largest banks...as of December 31 of last year are at 4.11 percent. That’s 1.66 percent higher than at the end of the fourth quarter of 2008" wallstreetonparade.com/2024/03/more-f…