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The 30y yield moves independently of the Fed. Its components—real rates, inflation expectations, and the term premium—are shaped by different forces. Commodities are the most direct driver. Once again, intermarket at its best: a near-perfect correlation.
#inflation#30yearrates
Inflationary pressure isn’t just a headline number—it shows up in industrial commodities.
The correlation with PPI is almost perfect, making these markets a powerful lens to anticipate cost pressures building in the economy.
By tracking futures, you can get an early read.…
The real interest rate today. Spot rate vs. P.C.E. rate. This spread is the number to watch. Money markets are overflowing with cash, this spread defines the attractiveness of staying there. Today 1.35% and in opposite trends.
#moneymarkets#PCE
Today Core PCE is 2.9%. FED spot rate around 4%. Pricing in future cuts may be risky. PCE could end up above the annual rate, triggering massive outflows from money markets. Where to? Intermarket in full expression.
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