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SMCI local peak in. Possible one more. Will unravel by 2H at latest.
and here comes bigger inflation reaccel.. As liquidity recedes.. and duration issuance goes up.
and here comes bigger inflation reaccel.. As liquidity recedes.. and duration issuance goes up.
In the coming 3-6 months you’ll likely see: - labor market deteriorate on margin - inflation remain sticky - liquidity tide go out - geopolitical risks rise - AI hit peak of inflated expects - volatility event as a result of the confluence of the above
Inflation remains an issue. Liquidity becomes an issue ~April
Inflation remains an issue. Liquidity becomes an issue ~April
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@ryanpmahon @Johncomiskey77 Yes John's work is consistently excellent!
@ryanpmahon @dharmatrade just did x.com/johncomiskey77…
In which I say a great many things that I believe, at least some of which you may disagree with: intelligencesquaredplus.com/videos/the-wor… Thanks to @ritula for being patient with my over-long answers and to @intelligence2 for organizing the event.
Risk Parity ended with Covid.
I know I sound like a broken record, but I cannot stress this enough. 60/40 is a portfolio that works when equities and bonds are negatively correlated to one another. This is true in a disinflationary, low nominal growth, low geopolitical risk world (1981-2020). 60/40 is an…
One of the irony's of the TGA is that the more bills are issued and thus mature in the 5 day window the bigger the TGA needs to be. Term out the debt and free the TGA
@Citrini7 when the market starts wondering on AI ROIC, I think thats when you panic big
A PERSONAL ANNOUNCEMENT Finally after all these years, the time has come. Launching in *two days*... Full info here: macrocharts.com
In the CHIPS Act, the subsidies to manufacturing captured the headlines. But to build a dominant semiconductor industry in the future, you need R&D focused on moonshots, not just short-term onshoring. Enter the new NSTC
@ryanpmahon I'm in the @Gavekal camp that says the bigger risk to fear is that China actually winds up doing a revaluation that becomes highly inflationary for the west. But for now, I think they value stability and will just keep allowing gold to revalue higher
Then do it! Once again, this is the difference between MMT and Austrians. Instead of just claiming our theory is great we built MMT informed deep learning neural networks to prove it. Austrains claim their AI models would be great, which they think proves their theory. 1/2 🔗👇
Imagine an AI engine that implements praxeology as framework for its 'understanding'. It would have the ability to assess the appropriateness of data, tell what is true from what is false and judge what is most likely to be true, and thus blow all the other AI out of the water.
Here is an update to the 2024 ZB US Treasury Bonds Forecast. While Treasury Bonds continue downward, I'm sorry, but I don't know how the current geopolitical events will impact the forecast.
Here is an update to the 2024 ZB US Treasury Bonds Forecast. x.com/intradaycycles…
Like if you want me to publish this code
What is the impact of "Central Bank Liquidity" on markets? Today I'm interviewing @crossbordercap & @BickerinBrattle, who have very different views on the subject Let me know if there's anything in particular you think I should ask them... 👇
Ladies and Gentlemen, your 2024 Bull Market allstarcharts.com/you-see-this-i…
Try a 19EMA. You might like it better. Held on every attempt since October 2023, until now.
Will $SPX close below its 25-day simple moving average? #StockMarket #spx500 #investing
@cullenroche That’s literally the most popular and consensus take there is
You selling commodities here? or do you not own enough commodities?
Issuing more t-bills at an accelerating pace is a precondition to becoming a banana republic. This is the type of thing you see emerging markets do, not the issuer of the world's reserve currency and neutral reserve asset. If you believe that the Fed's primary goal is smooth…
A lot of things changed for this market back in February, as we've discussed here again and again. But here's another one that changed that I think few people are talking about
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