SAS Capital @sascmllc
Deep Value, special situations, contrarian, activist investor Joined August 2018-
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Following920
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$PBR interesting opportunity with dividend of R$1.1/share -> $0.44/ADR for Q4, annualized $1.78/ADR ~12.2% at SP $14.5 + R$43.9B ~ $8.9B transferred to capital remuneration reserve which could be used for more dividends and share repurchases. Buybacks are ok at current valuation.
$CHRD $ERF good match 👏 ir.chordenergy.com/2024-02-21-Cho…
If we consider the storage vs. daily demand things are not so bad for natural gas🤔 #NatGas
$AR is doing the right moves: allows NG production to decline 3%, cuts capex by 26%, operates only one completion crew and has released one rig. Probably if all producers would allow NG production to decline 3%, NG would be above $3.50…crazy how irrational are some CEOs #NatGas
Crazy that the market cap of $NVDA could be > market cap of $GOOG tomorrow or by the end of the week. 🤨🙃
$ZIM probably short sellers are “fine” with short interest at 27.52% of float and EV/EBITDA below 1x at current spot rates.
$ZIM short interest has continued to increase during the last 2 wks of 2023 (up to 24.79%). Probably short sellers are nervous seeing the Houthi attacks in Red Sea. If rates will stay above breakeven in 2024 the Board should use min 25% of cash for buybacks…learn from $AMR 🤔
$TRVG at shares price of $1.13 pays a special dividend of half the share prices (€0.53 ~ $0.565) …Will $EXPE make an offer to acquire the remaining shares they don’t own? 🤔 seekingalpha.com/news/4012212-t…
$VTLE acquisitions done at higher multiples than own stock, funded by equity dilution & more debt which has forced them to hedge at low prices are good for sellers, the banks and short sellers. This is why they are the most shorted E&Ps with SI at 26%, despite low multiples. 🧐
25-30% of Russian oil export…Probably current prices do not reflect the risks for supply 🤔
25-30% of Russian oil export…Probably current prices do not reflect the risks for supply 🤔
$CHRD FCF yield of 12% for FY2023, 10% at WTI $70 and much better next year as old loss making hedges will expire. ir.chordenergy.com/download/CHRD_…
Finally a bullish weekly rig count report for #NatGas (-16 WoW). Let’s see more over the next weeks, especially in Haynesville.
$PBF solid results, net cash, attractive valuation, $1B buyback program, products storage still bullish
$CHRD quarterly dividend of $3.22 (div yield 9.5%), total return of capital at 75% of adj FCF (estimated $15/share in 2023), net cash position filecache.investorroom.com/mr5ir_oasispet…
$CIVI $2.12 quarterly dividend (div yield 13%), solid results, net cash position. ir.civitasresources.com/investor-relat…
$BTU “Peabody plans to return to shareholders at least 65 percent of annual Available Free Cash Flow (AFCF) retroactive to January 1, 2023.” $1B buy-back program 👏 seekingalpha.com/pr/19293228-pe…
Oil rigs in Canada are now down -4 YoY…Spring conditions worse than last year? 🤔Time to see more NG rigs dropped in US.
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what it means is their customers are going to slow down purchases so prices go down
My son just made the 17 & under Puerto Rico National Volleyball team. 🏐🙌🇵🇷 #prouddad
Permian basin should be the ground zero mecca of data center buildouts. What's not to love; large wind/solar/battery installed capacity, and getting paid $5 to take WAHA. #natgas
Volkswagen electric car sales plunge: Why are Europeans returning to petrol? #oott euronews.com/business/2024/…
@historyinmemes He should’ve gifted him a gym membership instead
“Let me stop you right there…” Caribbean nation Guyana is booming after discovering oil. BBC’s Stephen Sackur puts it to President @presidentaligy; lobbyists say oil is bad for the climate. Dude wasn’t having it. Mans was ready!
Beautiful service for the best uncle a guy could ask for.
Our world is smaller with the passing of dad last fall and now his younger brother Don. You will be greatly missed. dignitymemorial.com/obituaries/okl…
@Rory_Johnston I disagree. Biden SPR policy done changed the game.
hedge funds keep shorting energy. one day they will have an idea dinner where someone will have an epiphany that all those AI data centers won't run on hopes and dreams
One month, no internet, unlimited food. Yes or No ?
@pboockvar @RJRCapital Impending Taiwan invasion nothing to factor in either...
@GoldForecast Keep $XOM and $CNQ and wait for your post tax dividend of 3%, and tell yourself that it’s a better deal than $PBR.
@wolfofwalkerst Where do you get your <5% div number? It is .44/share for the quarter and Q4 Brent prices were low. Still no word on what they are doing with the cash reserve, which might still get paid out in partial.
I increased my $PBR position by 40% via this flash crash. Extraordinary Dividend? I think that will be decided at the AGM anyway. Regardless on the current dividend will have a forward 15% yield - Without factoring in increasing production.. Yea that is buy all day every day.…
@calvinfroedge I'm still in, don't see a really game changer, neither in macro, nor in the company, nor in the price, it's still fair valido even if less discounted Maybe is my limitation but this is what I see
Bayou City Energy ( $MNR founder/ PE firm) publishes a position paper encouraging natty producers to drop rigs and defer completions to free up cash for returns to S/Hs, debt reduction and M&A. i.e. see Kimmeridge bayoucityenergy.com/wp-content/upl…
$VET.TO $VET "Year-to-date, we have repurchased and retired 1.4 million shares and plan to increase the pace of share buybacks starting immediately."
Everything you wanted to know about $VET European Windfall Taxes but were afraid to ask. No windfall taxes in 2024.
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