ucb197 @ucb197

No, it's not a bubble in tech stocks. We are less than 1 standard deviation from the trend. You can see what a bubble looks like in the late 1990's when we exploded out of the decade long log regression channel to be multiple SD's from trend. Nothing to see, move on... 1/

I'm just one person, and my programming needs are somewhat unusual (building various kinds of statistical forecasting models). But I'm just not seeing the consistent productivity gains from LLMs that I would have expected if you'd asked me 6 months ago.

@finallyx This tweet is very underrated

This is for everyone who thinks today’s economic and geopolitical situation is a clear sign that the West (read: US) is on a path of imminent decline, and especially for those who love to make equivalencies to other falling Empires or historical episodes. Consider the following set of events which all happened in the 1960s and 1970s, and why none of these led to the fall of the “US Empire”: Political events: ◦JFK, one of the most popular US presidents, promising change and progress, assassinated in 1963 ◦During his brief tenure, the US survives the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 (closest we ever got to nuclear war) ◦His brother, Bobby, attorney general, also assassinated during his presidential run in 1968 ◦Civil Rights Movement at its peak, its inspiring leader Martin Luther King assassinated in 1968 ◦Another prominent Civil Rights leader, Malcolm X, assassinated in 1965 ◦Peak strength of the KKK (Ole Miss riot in 1962, George Wallace, African Americans being brutalized in the South) ◦Kennedy’s successor, Lyndon Johnson wages the war in Vietnam, tens of thousands of american soldiers are killed, the country is engulfed in anti-war protests ◦Afyer Johnson comes Nixon, who ends the war in Vietnam, but is considered the most divisive president yet. First ever (and thus far the only) President to reisgn over the threat of impeachment ◦Two weak Presidents, Ford and Carter, govern the country through the 1970s stagflation and geopolitical shocks Geopolitics: ◦Cold War at its peak during the 1960s, tensions with the Soviets rising ◦Vietnam war - the most devastating showcase that the US was not the military superpower it was 25 years earlier ◦Iranian Revolution in 1979, enabled by two decades of US foreign policy mistakes ◦Wars in Isreal: 6-day war in 1967, Yom Kippur war in 1973 ◦Both of these events (in Israel and Iran) leading to two oil crises in 1973 and 1979 ◦A number of proxy wars and CIA-driven regime changes throughout the world. Each one being a mistake on its own Economics: ◦Double digit inflation (going up to 20%), coupled with double digit interest rates, lasting a full decade ◦Oil shocks in the 1970s trigger shortages, and keep inflation high ◦The West is in a period of stagflation (high inflation, low growth), the dominant Keynesian economic consensus cannot explain it and has no remedies for it ◦The economist intelligentsia make predictions that it’s only a matter of time before the Soviet economy overtakes the US economy ◦Inequality and social mobility: African americans are second grade citizens, as are women. Political polarization in Congress was lower? Yeah, because Congress was almost exclusively white men. *To sum up*: assassinations of a President and prominent leaders, stagflation with no cure in sight, peak racism, the US actually losing a war, peak Cold War tension. And yet, “the Empire” didn’t fall apart, did it? Now please don’t respond by telling me all the reasons why today is worse because the debt is higher, or labor producitivity is lower or whatever. Just consider whether you would be on the side of those making the exact same argument of an imminent US decline in the 1970s as you are making today. And why that argument is as wrong today as it was then. Today, we do have a period of economic and geopolitical pain, unlike any of the past 30 years. And yet, it’s nowhere near what the US has gone through in the 60s and the 70s. Not to even mention the 30s and 40s in the West, or the 19th century. What sets the West apart from all of its historical antecedents and modern counterparts is its trial&error democracy, protected by politically and economically inclusive institutions. No matter how bad you think things are, times of error do end up producing periods of success. This is by no means automatic, but as long as people demand change and progress, it does happen. Gradually, as usual. No magic bullet, no quick fixes

@codonnell_Times @HealthyFla @TB_Times Well written. Appreciate the inclusion of the details (I.e sensitivity analysis) with a concise explanation. Great work!

@LastBearStandng Well written! A concise description of the mechanism for rerouting RRP. Thank you for sharing. Appreciate the counterpoints presented, and not surprised as to why the Fed doesn’t pursue this course!

My jaws keep dropping as I go through 70 PhD applicant files. People w/ 2 coauthored papers & an interesting solo writing sample don’t even make it to the top 10 in my pile. The level of knowledge, research experience & passion these kids bring to the table is just remarkable! 🤩

I unknowingly tweeted macroeconomic content during key moments of World Cup finals and semi-finals, so my vow today is not to do the same during the Super Bowl.

🇯🇵JPY (USDJPY) price action explained (thread) Many questions on ¥, especially- why is ¥↑ (& so aggressively) since BOJ’s Dec’22 YCC shock? 1/ Indeed, ¥ has undergone a sharp reversal after being worst major FX vs $ in most of ‘22: USDJPY Start ‘22 115→ 152 high→128 curr

@Cobratate Bro didn’t you say you moved to Romania because the west was so unsafe and unjust ??

So...Elon Musk let Andrew Tate back on Twitter, and Tate promptly used it to reveal his whereabouts to authorities in Romania who then arrested him. All because Greta Thunberg owned him so hard his little wee-wee fell off. Do I have that right? Please say I have that right.

The 1930 World Cup was absolutely mental. The refs wore suits, the Bolivians played in berets, and the Romanian team was selected by the King... and that's the tame stuff. From premature funerals to managers knocked out with chloroform, here's a short history of the madness...

Last week I summarized the FTX-implosion and its ripple down effect. The uncovering of grossly negligent behavior by the new J.P. Morgan was the epicenter of what has become a tidal wave in crypto Now Crypto’s biggest lender, Genesis, seems to be taking in water A thread 1/n

@AndreasSteno Huge fan of the show! Perhaps you can include wages as well? Could this be a counter point? If I remember correctly maybe you or @MacroAlf have already tweeted it.

Somebody said NFL concussion protocol woulda let JFK back in the parade 😭😭😭😭😭

“we are tactical bears…"short twos & spoos" 'til Halloween… SPX 3333 to force "policy panic" (Nov 16th G20)… “Big Low" not 'til Q1 when recession/credit shocks = "peak Fed", "peak yields", "peak US$"; trade of '23 short $, long EM, small cap, cyclicals” BofA’s Hartnett

To the Republicans complaining about the billions the US is sending to Ukraine I’m going to share with a private opinion from a knowledgeable European official I know Basically, he starts off smiling and saying the US are “absolutely ruthless” with regard to the Ukraine war 1

@CaleCrypto My private key isn’t working. This project looks fungible

@TheStalwart 10/10 chart hahahaa. Well done!