Bradlito @Bradlito1
A wide range of interests. Joined May 2021-
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$CLF is a tiny trade for me and I just missed getting out yesterday for a quick profit. I added a bit more today dropping my cost basis to ~18.52. It's just too small a position for me to do much with it. We'll see what develops tomorrow. Here? ~8hrs (all sessions) bars/math.
$MSFT on ~8hrs bars/math/trigger. So, my short 400 puts will expire worthless tomorrow (wish I just bought more shares) and my long shares will be called away at $410. Well, unless I roll my options. I don't know yet. But, a really nice trade for me if you've been following.
On $MSFT, what I did this AM was bought back 410 calls expiring tomorrow at $3 but I was able to re-sell them at >$4.03. If it rallies to 410, no worries. On my short puts, I might cover them, might just take stock with a ~391 price result.
2 yr tsy rate futures back to 5%!!! 2 day bars here/math/trigger. I placed white arrows by 2 previous points where the trigger positioned for rates to move lower. I'll buy bonds when we see this event happen. For now, I'm using $TBIL.
$MSFT sold off likely in sympathy to others' earnings today. This makes my 410 covered calls look great, my 400 short puts . . . sitting on the edge. No matter, I'll take either direction but > 400 < 410 = optimal. Worse case? I'll own it @ ~391.
My pressures catch $NFLX really well and it presaged a drop here. ~8hrs bars/math and I put a down white arrow at sell triggers (dashed red line passing down through my lift line (0).
I occasionally find myself with odd combos. I am long $MSFT shares, I have covered calls written for Friday at 410 and I have short puts at 400. I guess this means I'd like to see shares settle at 409.99 Friday.
$TN futures here on 2 day bars. If green crosses down through yellow < 0, and it looks on the verge of doing so based on the trigger <0, tsys should make a lower low. They are close anyway. At some point in the near future, bonds could really make a good long trade again.
I bought shs of $CLF, the steel company, at $18.59 in the aftermarket. Note that it has 2 earlier -1 readings (my lower bound) where the shares popped up nicely. I'll likely attempt to trade CLF for a point or 2 and move on.
My short naked $MSFT 400 puts a few days ago turned into a good trade. Wish I had sold more contracts but the trade was supplementary to the purchase of MSFT in other accts, selling covered calls. I'll have some decisions to make today.
$ES on ~8hrs bars/math/trigger. Note that the Pressures have crossed down in the current bar (new bar at 8:30 AM CST) and the trigger is right at the 0 or lift line. How the market handles this overboughtness, its next rally will give us strong clues.
Lourenco Goncalves ( $CLF) asked about the Fed said the biggest issue with it is the talk, said he'd prefer them just to, my works here, spit it out so businesses can plan. Crazy part? He's telling this to the TV source that spends the most time on FED speak exegesis. Irony.
Some labels here for $SPX daily bars. I imagine the Elliotticians might think we are in a wave 4 with another 5 to go lower. This, then, would be the first wave, like an A wave of something larger or just longer in time.
I sold these naked puts on $MSFT yesterday in a few accounts for ~8.35. Here they are today on 30 mins bars. I'd cover them today if they get to 3.00 but otherwise just hanging in for now.
$BTAI.IV on 130 mins bars/math/trigger indicates "risk on" today. If the price series is moving down, it means low beta stocks underperforming high betas.
$BTAL (.IV) again on 130 mins bars/math/trigger. I should keep this on my screen at all times if not for a trade in BTAL, perhaps even more important to monitor if equity allocated $$s are moving to riskier or less risky positions. Risk on today!
I tapped out at 5033.75 with gains but not as much as I should have. I lowered my cost basis by adding a few more contracts as low as 5009. I want to be a bit on the light side until we get through some earnings. You can see the why of my exit here.
Micro $EM, $MES, on 10 mins bars. Note the triggers for very short term trading.
$UVIX, one of the volatility ETFs here on ~8 hrs bars showing it backing off a bit. Of course, this is consistent with my earlier charts on $ES. I suppose the main deterrent today to a rally is news-related. Lots of earnings this week.
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@Bradlito1 I’m same .. thinking of setting a sell of 18.9 for 2 points , can’t see it popping the 19 today can you?
US Stock markets and the 80 day nominal wave, probably occurring here but possibly was a subtle low mid March. This then being a move up of lower degree periodicity, the 40 day nominal wave @ ~ 35 days. The nominal 40 week wave (@ ~ 250 days) has likely peaked (also shown…
@DancerMama25 @Bradlito1 @BViars3 Delay steals don't happen when the ball has traveled 60ft. They happen when the ball has traveled, we'll say, 10-30 ft. It is still very different timing than the timing of the play shown here.
@Bradlito1 @JohnStossel I love John’s work. He is well prepared and a clear presenter. Not surprised when he calls people out that they just use an ostrich strategy.
@Bradlito1 @JeffStanek1 @BViars3 This isn’t true at all. Delayed steals are real plays in baseball. Not seen often at the MLB level, but it’s a play nonetheless. Often done with runners on 1st & 3rd to bait the throw and steal home. Worked against the Tigers early this year.
King of the Cycles @ 3.5 years (@ ~ 1300 days), sampled since 1987-1991 in various equity indices: 1) #djia 2) #spx 3) #rut 4) #dax #stockmarkets
@Bradlito1 Yup. Its the hubris as if they knew it was going to occur when they are simply explaining what already happened then include a nice little “link in bio” at the end haha
The $SPX and the dominant wave around 250 days since 2014, a supreme and crisply defined wave with a bandwidth below ~ 350 days. Notionally the Hurst 40 week nominal wave Recently peaked, with an anticipated trough in July #stockmarkets #cycles
@Bradlito1 Hard to take from them. But they apparently found it easy to take from us.
@Bradlito1 The Kiowa, and most certainly the Comanche, were greater masters of this “technology” than the Spanish—or anyone else, for that matter—could ever dream of becoming.
@Bradlito1 @TracesofTexas My first thought exactly as I was reading this.
@Bradlito1 @iwore_13 @harris65714 @jcantwell2499 @CSTNCantwell @CoachMedley66 @beau_throws @nationalthrows @ThrowersUni @milesplit @MoMileSplit I was anecdotally told “immediately”. Then supplied facts about his progress. This was not a full story. Thanks for adding in more information on a fascinating story.
@Bradlito1 Doubt its a big deal. Companies are always investing in tech. One day its the cloud the next its AI. Estimates Ive seen are 100-150bln worldwide up from 50-100bln a few years ago, which is trivial compared to a global economy of 100tln
@Bradlito1 They used to report its value every day for several years.
@Bradlito1 I expect to see this longer wave (~ 150 days) dominate once again in coming years
The periodic feature at around 160 days average wavelength in #uranium since mid 2020. Recently attenuated by the power of the prominent wave at ~ 75 days (see time frequency plot below), phase is hard up.
I shrank position because I'm too dumb to make money in a choppy market. Being dumb is my edge. Shoutout to the small brain gang.
I'm not sharing a bunch of work because I'm not doing anything. I shrank some positions over the past couple of weeks now I wait for my pitch. It's ok when it's boring, go get a lift in.
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