World Climate Service @WorldClimateSvc
Insight and tools for long-range forecasting: objective seasonal and subseasonal prediction. Tweets by Prescient Weather cofounder Richard James, PhD worldclimateservice.com State College, PA Joined January 2018-
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El Niño is ending, but near-equatorial SSTs around the globe aren't cooling off yet: still warmer than last year, and record high for the satellite era. The most unusual warmth is now in the Atlantic sector.
Preparations are under way for ECMWF's next reanalysis, ERA6, with ~double the horizontal resolution. Production expected to start later this year.
Preparations are under way for ECMWF's next reanalysis, ERA6, with ~double the horizontal resolution. Production expected to start later this year.
"Better decisions knowing [the] probabilities" - yes!
Tropical (El Niño) and mid-latitude warmth has stolen the show in recent months, but Arctic (anomalous) warmth is an ongoing saga. For 66-90°N, November-March was the 4th warmest on record (ERA5), behind only 2016-2018. N. Europe was cold, but at most about 2°C below normal.
Looks like this seasonal forecast from last month verified in just one day (#Dubai flooding)
According to GHCN monthly data, there was only one site worldwide with a record cold February (minimum 60 years of data) - Magadan in far eastern Russia (reliably colder than normal in an El Niño winter). There were zero monthly cold records in March.
A *very* interesting preprint. A comparison between Pangu, GraphCast (and FuXi) and IFS HRES regarding extreme events (heat waves, cold spells and wind events).
A *very* interesting preprint. A comparison between Pangu, GraphCast (and FuXi) and IFS HRES regarding extreme events (heat waves, cold spells and wind events).
A new AI approach for predicting ENSO... but a validation period of 2008-2022 implies a sample size of maybe 3 for "extreme ENSO events" 🧐 Link to paper: link.springer.com/article/10.100…
A new AI approach for predicting ENSO... but a validation period of 2008-2022 implies a sample size of maybe 3 for "extreme ENSO events" 🧐 Link to paper: link.springer.com/article/10.100…
With El Niño waning, the Atlantic warmth is once again indisputably the most significant oceanic warm anomaly on the planet. Amazing extent of record high March SSTs. NW Indian Ocean warmth is also highly anomalous (+IOD persisting).
Also from CDPW/CPASW in Tallahassee: confirmation of NCEP/NWS plans for a 30-year twice-per-week GEFSv13 reforecast: a big improvement over the v12 data. Fully coupled forecasts out to 48 days Target implementation March 2026
Checking in on near-equatorial SSTs, it's essentially a tie with 2016 for the zonal average at this date. However, El Niño is ending much more quickly this time, whereas the Atlantic is drastically warmer than in 2016. Major North Pacific differences too.
An experimental upgrade to our product shows a direct inter-model comparison of medium-range maps, including ECMWF's AIFS (AI model). We include bias correction using model hindcasts where possible. Can't wait for AIFS ensembles...
Dr Simon Lee @SimonLeeWx
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103K Followers 226 Following Climatologist & Weather Historian. Weather news. Climatic statistics and records. By M. Herrera https://t.co/lHInK0Emf1Eric Webb @webberweather
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269K Followers 623 Following President at Bone Fide Wealth • CNBC Advisor Council • Memelord • Posts ≠ Financial Advice • The Joint Account: https://t.co/CNtZzhgQMuEl Niño commence à s'évader mais ça demeure plus chaud et record dans la zone océanique près de l'équateur. #mm #meteoqc
El Niño is ending, but near-equatorial SSTs around the globe aren't cooling off yet: still warmer than last year, and record high for the satellite era. The most unusual warmth is now in the Atlantic sector.
Area-averaged daily SST charts for four North Atlantic sectors are now available on my website! The domain plus that day's SST anomalies are shown in the inset map, and 2023 is highlighted for comparison. kouya.has.arizona.edu/tropics/SSTmon…
@AliciaMBentley Good news is that the AIFS (and other AI trained globals) did not drop out as badly during the low predictability regime. Recent week would make for an intriguing case study to understand why.
Noteworthy decrease in 500-hPa geopotential height ACC over the Northern Hemisphere during the last week. There was a large decrease in ACC ("synoptic skill") in Day 5 forecasts valid on April 15 for all of the global models shown. ACC remains lower since. emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verifica…
On June 1st 2015, two walkers neared the summit of Sgùrr na Lapaich, an isolated Highland peak. The mist was thick, and visibility poor. Suddenly, they heard a thunderous noise in the distance. Spooked, they continued their walk. But what made the mysterious noise? (1/n)
@WorldClimateSvc Air temperature in the tropics is also at its highest point in the satellite era.
This is what I am going to discuss folks this weekend.....interesting for summer and hurricane season in Atlantic.....
El Niño is ending, but near-equatorial SSTs around the globe aren't cooling off yet: still warmer than last year, and record high for the satellite era. The most unusual warmth is now in the Atlantic sector.
@WorldClimateSvc Yes, the tropical Atlantic is significantly warmer this year compared to last.
The spatial plots of the 26C isotherm are a nice way to visualize the progression of SSTs that support TC genesis. 2024 only really comparable to 2010 and 2005 at this point. Using 28C (approx. threshold for major hurricane), 2024 is really in a league of its own out in the MDR.
Impressive Southwest Florida dust devil today in Fort Myers. Check out both the size and rotation as it went through an industrial section along Hanson St. They form on sunny days from pockets of warm, rising air as the updraft starts to swirl. Credit: @winknews viewer Theodore S…
This chart is a composite of the last 5 cycles using Hadcrut data. Each el nino peak was set to zero. The thick black line shows the average. Temps typically fell quickly the year after el nino & held that level steady for seven years before the next spike which came years 7 to 9
The next generation of ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis of the global climate is being prepared. Based on inputs from the ERA user community, we have compiled a list of features deemed essential, and key priorities for future generations of ERA data products.➡️climate.copernicus.eu/sites/default/…
New research article: Understanding winter windstorm predictability over Europe doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-…
Have seen this a few times in second half of recent Aprils, especially 2016, 2017, 2021 and 2022. Last widely very warm second half of April over Europe was 2019.
🥶 Nouvelle nuit de lutte contre le gel dans le vignoble de Chablis (Yonne). Certains vignerons ont allumé des bougies sur leurs parcelles. 🔥 (© Jérémy Faillat)
@ScottDuncanWX Back to 26-27C in NE Germany next Tue/Wed, after 2-3C maxes tmrw! Bit mad.
Another destructive frost morning today in many parts of Europe. There have also been very cold daytime temperatures which is extremely rare for late April. A lot of snow in parts of central Europe as well. Images: @meteociel
A phenomenon so rare in Britain that all our native languages have no word for it, is the space on a mountain between a cliff face and the receding summer snow pack. In German it is known as randkluft. On the 30 August 2015 I visited one of the best examples, on Ben Macdui.
Extreme contrast. April 2024 will go down as one of the most incredible flips on record in Europe. Summer to winter for some. The warmth broke an enormous number of April records and the cold is now beating some late April records.
Thunderstorm and strong winds on the afternoon of April 19 in Yizhang, Hunan