Uncle FRED's Economics @YourUncleFRED
Economics straight from Uncle FRED's mouth Not officially associated with Federal Reserve System Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Washington D.C. Joined December 2020-
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The only difference between @united and @Allegiant are the prices…it’s always an indicator or something not working causing us to sit on plane for an hour suffocating 🙄🤮
Monetary zombies making a big comeback. Getting a lot of people saying "M2 is rising! Hyperinflation coming!" Folks, M2 hasn't had a stable relationship to, well, anything for a long time
Several years ago, my former PIMCO colleague Chris Dialynas remarked that unconventional monetary policy—floored rates and large asset purchases—would become a “no exit” #policy paradigm. What the @ecb and @federalreserve said/did in the last 7 days suggest that he was prescient.
Big miss on Philly Fed Index 11.1 vs 20.0 expected down from 26.3 in November Piggybacking miss in recent Empire State reading
Housing still on fire... Building Permits (Nov) beat at 1.639m vs 1.55m expected and up from 1.54m in October Housing Starts at 1.547m vs 1.53 expected up 1.528
“In other words, Americans should prepare themselves for a temporary burst of inflation.” “But should the inflation rate suddenly spike, this is not a signal to tighten monetary or fiscal policy, as long as the spike is temporary.” stlouisfed.org/publications/r…
Financial economic poetry from @elerianm ft.com/content/3cf475…
Industrial Production for November comes in at 0.4% vs. 0.3% expected...but slows from previous month’s reading of 0.9% MoM
“[T]hey conclude that the longer-term decline in exchange rate volatility likely reflects the success of independent central banks in stabilizing inflation, which in turn has narrowed differences in interest rates among the countries.” brookings.edu/bpea-articles/…
JPow always did strike me as a Gatsby
Hawks so cute...always dreaming about inflation...probably still believe in Santa too
Election results cited for U of M Sentiment surprise... "Just as four years ago, the post-election partisan shifts in economic expectations are too extreme to be justified by economic fundamentals." -UofM release Sentiment for UofM football remained near 5 year lows
Uncle FRED not allowed to post December U of Michigan Sentiment yet, but comes in 81.4 vs 76.5 expected and increases from 76.9 in November. Current conditions and expectations both beat and up from November
Headline PPI continues to decelerate, 0.1% MoM for November vs 0.2% expected...Annualized headline rate as expected at 0.8% Core PPI 0.1% vs 0.2% expected and roughly flat from October...Core PPI annualized at 1.4% vs 1.5% expected
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"If you spent $100 every second of every day it would take you 1966 years to equal the $6.2 trillion the US government has spent the past 12 months" - Mike Hartnett
*INTEL EXTENDS DECLINE TO 13%, BIGGEST DROP SINCE JULY 2020
The longer the BOJ does nothing to halt the implosion of the Japanese Dong, the faster Beijing will also devalue. That's when it gets exciting
I bet 99.9% of people don't realize the Federal Reserve lent big banks $152 billion in March 2023 to postpone another banking crisis/recession because it was too soon. The amount they lent was more than 2008 & 2020 combined.
They want regional bank failures & consolidation of the system which is why they're ending BTFP. The whole point of intervening with BTFP and OCE in the first place was so the Fed could control when the collapse happens, just like 2020 and 2008.
We have officially entered the "show me the monAI" phase
In junior high, I knew the genealogies from *The Silmarillion* by heart.
Facebook will have to sell a lot of private data to the NSA and a ton of Chinese ads to make up for this.
Meta Craters 13% After Revenue Forecast Disappoints zerohedge.com/markets/meta-c…
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Predicting the future is extremely difficult. Faking predictive prowess is much easier. The secret sauce is pruning. Here's how to do it:
banks are borrowing to kick the can after the Fed began the Taper now cash assets have gone negative 6 weeks in a row is this sustainable?
True...but the reaction function is a bit more complicated by their unwillingness to weigh lags due to the unique nature of the cycle
@SMatteoMiller That’s kind of what I mean. I feel like investors have a decent sense of how the Fed will react to different data, they just don’t know what those data will say yet.
What Are Mises' Six Lessons? zerohedge.com/economics/what…
after the pumping comes the dumping, literally
Searching "H100" on Baidu leads to interesting results
I have been saying for years that Amazon Science has by far the best forecasting R&D team on the planet and what drives the innovation at the team is not focus on specific models but the methodology and in depth knowledge of forecasting which is becoming somewhat a lost art…
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