Andrew Berrington @ahberrington
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Pay attention to tomorrow, that’s all I’m going to say.
Pay attention to tomorrow, that’s all I’m going to say.
Barring early convective influence, I am quite suspicious of the GFS' depiction of surface winds that are west of due south in OK here with a 990 mb surface low that deepens 7 mb between 15z and 21z in SW KS.
Pretty notable signal for a substantial severe weather event Friday afternoon in E NE, IA, E KS, and NW MO. Potential for an arcing band of supercells near the surface low with moderate to strong low level shear and 0-3 km CAPE.
Oh this is huge.
Tale old as time. This is why we don't trust the NAM and its derivatives with boundary layer thermos 3 days out.
12z BRO sounding today (60 hours in advance of Thursday) vs. 12z BRO sounding *the day of* 4/15. No, this is not the same moist advection regime/level of deep moisture.
One of these things is not like the others re: Thursday (also just lol).
So turns out Teslas do not have an actual physical odometer and instead derive mileage from battery charge. That is going to be a very large yikes from me.
So turns out Teslas do not have an actual physical odometer and instead derive mileage from battery charge. That is going to be a very large yikes from me.
One difference between previous sequences this year with this potential upcoming active period (post-Thursday) in recent model guidance is *days* of strong southerly flow in the low levels out of the Gulf/W Caribbean to allow for plenty of deep moisture transport.
Supercell SW of Lansing #miwx moving towards town looks suspect.
Hard to argue that the sub-tropical jet introduces all sorts of mesoscale predictability issues even on the short term when it is involved. Seems like today might very well be a case of that.
There was an attempt dot meme. No, but seriously, the 12z HRRR was absolutely atrocious in most of Oklahoma with moisture today. Note that the surface temp in both soundings is the same.
Have seen some mention of the CIPS analogs for Monday, well what about Tuesday further east (morning convection of course being a factor) especially with the slowing trough? The Great Plains and Mississippi Valley sectors are absolutely loaded with significant severe events.
Potential caveats showing up for Monday in the 12z Euro run today which would otherwise be high end. Convection further south in TX early on leaves a cold pool and overturned air, which then gets advected north towards 00z, resulting in shallow moisture profiles.
A whole line of semi discrete supercells in #flwx rn with 300-400 m2/s2 ESRH to work with per mesoanalysis. Already one likely significant tornado has occurred south of Jacksonville.
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Elizabeth A. Barnes, .. @atmosbarnes
2K Followers 72 Following Professor, climate scientist @CSUAtmosSci. Passionate about data science, earth science, and training the next generation of scientific leaders.While the threat Thursday may be "conditional" it is not nearly as conditional as the threat last week. Don't let recency bias creep in. Try to block April 15 out of your mind and assess tomorrow independently.
NE on Friday:
@sigtor2019 @AarronWeets I doubt it. It's become exceptionally difficult for anything to get rated EF-5.
Me. 100% Seems about right @spann H/t Mark Plate.
No shade on the lead wave Thu/Fri, but Sat 4/27 looks like the caliber of S Plains synoptic setup we haven't seen much of since May 2019. Both the ceiling and floor appear high. There are always flies in the ointment, but it's hard to see any giant dealbreakers as of now.
Developed some analogs for this May based off of a few factors. In the end, the general pattern was that of troughing across the Rocky Mountains with a low amplitude ridge near the Appalachian Mountains. 1/
I advocate for the recognition of "nudgers" as important for tornadogenesis*. Nudgers are cells that don't merge, but can "nudge" the RFD for long periods of time. Have you seen them? *for reasons discussed in spc.noaa.gov/publications/b… and journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/…
Since the cat's (mostly) out of the bag, here's some goodies from my most recent work In the 30 mins before tornadogenesis, tornadic supercells tend to have: - cell mergers into their left flanks - increasing cells in their rear flanks - decreasing cells in their forward flanks
New feature on the SPC Mesoanalysis page: Mesoanalysis hodographs! Double click anywhere on the map to bring up the table with environment parameters and climo tables and it’s the last tab. There must be 100 MUCAPE for the hodographs to plot.
Very strong approaching Salem iowa!! #IAwx
@ahberrington At least it got the kinematic field fairly well 🥴
@VORTEXJeff Where I kinda disagree: Big troughs, synoptically evident days, whatever you call them... they have advantages. You can plan a chase days in advance. You have reasonable odds of success in any of multiple targets. You get hyped, the hype builds, and it pays off. Or, it used to.
@ahberrington @PivotalWeather You mean what @CoDWXData has?
@ahberrington @AWade10 That's a great point... guidance has tended to be late and underdone on CI, consistent with strong Nino. Also totally agree re the 4 corners benchmark, though it can get dicey with shorter wavelengths I guess.
I’ve been wanting to do a project/find an article on the belief that trends in data (dProg/dt) indicate the newer solution is closer to truth. If this is normalised by a measure of predictability with time (Lorenz saturation curve & ML) then does that belief still hold?
@ahberrington @brettjrob Yep, I was going to hedge and say that that day still could’ve been notable late in C OK (OUN obs STP of 3-4) had discrete mode survived as long as it probably will on Monday
Substantial convergence today WRT timing, led by GFS trending faster to meet the rest of the pack. Still plenty of things to nitpick and worry about with this setup, but the likelihood of forcing arriving too late for daytime storms appears to be dwindling right now.
Notable NWP battle emerging for Mon 4/15, with GFS much slower and less compact than international guidance. GFS appears somewhat mistimed... whereas UKMET and ICON are more in the realm of a textbook sig dryline setup, at least for 500 mb and surface features.
Now that is a look!
Trends for United States
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