John Luke Tyner @johnluketyner92
Joined August 2011-
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Remember on the way up you call inflation transitory and ignore rising housing costs/rents and their future impact on CPI and on the way down you call it lagging and change the index (without adjusting for the base effect that OER generally runs above CPI so you would need to…
Remember on the way up you call inflation transitory and ignore rising housing costs/rents and their future impact on CPI and on the way down you call it lagging and change the index (without adjusting for the base effect that OER generally runs above CPI so you would need to… https://t.co/NvpxThmW8A
Some of the least useful charts for investors over the past few years were all of the "excess savings are nearly depleted" charts. They've been "months away from depletion" for years. Money circulates, and there is permanently more money in the system now.
If you retired 25 years ago with $1 million dollars and decided you'd take out $50,000 / year in retirement (adjusted for inflation each year), you'd have run out in early 2020. *ignores taxes
Inflation ex energy, food, goods, shelter, health insurance and airfares is looking good guys.
Inflation ex energy, food, goods, shelter, health insurance and airfares is looking good guys.
New rule - lawmakers who vote for deficits should be required to hold all of their wealth in Treasury bonds. H/t:@VXO150
What does it mean when stocks are trading UP as inflation data is starting to look consistently bad? It means that market participants believe the Fed is bluffing and it will implicitly settle for a HIGHER inflation target and go ahead and cut rates while disinflation has stalled…
If the Fed thought this through properly, and really wanted to be assured that they could get inflation back down to 2%, they would realize that what they need to do is engineer a way to raise term premiums so that private demand would stop chasing the longest duration nonsene…
This explains why there are so few deportations, as every deportation is a lost vote. As happened this week, you can literally assault police officers in broad daylight in New York, be released with no bail, give everyone the finger and *still* not be deported!! Outrageous.
This explains why there are so few deportations, as every deportation is a lost vote. As happened this week, you can literally assault police officers in broad daylight in New York, be released with no bail, give everyone the finger and *still* not be deported!! Outrageous.
Between sending illegal migrants to sanctuary cities to expose the hypocrisy and now defending the border while the Federal Govt will not, Governor Abbott may end up in US History books for this issue… And people will look back and wonder how anyone could have been against him.
Between sending illegal migrants to sanctuary cities to expose the hypocrisy and now defending the border while the Federal Govt will not, Governor Abbott may end up in US History books for this issue… And people will look back and wonder how anyone could have been against him.
Congratulations to the US Government! We just posted a $509 Billion deficit in just the first quarter of fiscal 2024. Nothing like running a $2+ TRILLION annual deficit in a “super strong” economy at full employment!
History repeats, this time with the exact same cast.
History repeats, this time with the exact same cast. https://t.co/AWsexMIqg5
Over the last 30 years, the purchasing power of the US consumer dollar has been cut in half due to inflation. At the same time, the S&P 500 has gained 764% (>7% per year) after adjusting for inflation. Why you need to invest, in one chart...
I guess we'll stop hearing about the Sahm rule for a bit... NFP beats, unemployment rate down more than expected.
How much higher would US CPI be if US consumption % of ultra-processed foods was more like Italy's? How much lower would US healthcare costs be? How much lower would Rx company profits be? Chart via @gnoble79
4.7% on the 10yr one month ago: highest since 2007!!! 4.7% on the 10yr today: return to ZIRP!!!
The S&P 500 is basically unchanged over the last 30 months, and inflation has run around 15% over that time.
Can they take his Nobel Prize away?
These guys love to privatize their profits and socialize their losses.
These guys love to privatize their profits and socialize their losses.
Seems like a good day to repost this from a year ago.
Seems like a good day to repost this from a year ago.
If I was playing for lower yields with this kind of positioning and market action, I would be shtting myself right here. That’s just me though.
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*YELLEN: I’M CONCERNED ABOUT WHERE WE'RE GOING WITH THE US DEFICIT Yellen knows we need lower rates. So does the Fed.
YELLEN: CONCERNED ABOUT WHERE WE'RE GOING WITH US DEFICIT 🤣🤣🤣🥹🥹🥹
Interesting comments from the Treasury on the Housing market and rental inflation. "Shelter developments in the first quarter were mixed but, on balance, indicated still-elevated growth in home purchase prices and rental inflation."
Left implosion 🍿🍿🍿🍿
James Carville has problem with young voters refusing to vacate his lawn.
Normally this would spell rout..however now there’s this thing known as cheating..
I remember very clearly in 2015, it was $7.38 in CA to get a chicken burrito from Chipotle. Paid $11.28 recently. About 5% pricing power per year.
This started bottoming back when US banks ran into issues and were bailed out. Fed and Treasury want to fight inflation but don’t want depositors to lose any money either, and so liquidity remained available even as inflation remained above-target. #FiscalDominance
Whoa! Are US Treasury term premia breaking out higher?
"As long as inflation is pro-cyclical (demand-pull), stocks tend to perform well, as higher inflation is associated with stronger growth. When inflation is counter cyclical (cost-push), however, stocks suffer." @andrea_cicione
@Castigl75618540 @profplum99 Funny way to say it when the correct metric HAS spiked 80bp this year.
Dana Romo
Former Dallas Cowboys star QB Tony Romo says he’s never seen Scottie Scheffler shoot over 70 in the 500 rounds he’s played with him. 🫢
‘Contrary to theory, most high-risk businesses have delivered poor long-term returns.’ - Aoris Q3 letter Discusses: Atlas Copco, Visa (bought), Compass (bought), Tractor Supply (sold), Costco (sold) uploads-ssl.webflow.com/62fb0f1b53f804…
I can confirm. All my employees told me about this. Great to see, and it wasn't just in Bogota it was huge in Medellin and several other cities.
Holy shlit. Take a look at this giant protest today in Colombia against the socialist regime. If not for 𝕏, you would've never known.
Just to remind you: CENTRAL BANKING IS A MARXIST CONCEPT. It is absolutely incompatible with the free market system (capitalism).
Here's a new one. Screening job applicants based upon their criminal records is now considered racist and deserving of a federal lawsuit. Just hire known criminals to run your cash register and safe so that you don't run afoul of the Feds. Cool.
OUTRAGEOUS: Biden administration sues Sheetz gas stations due to ‘racial discrimination’ because they conduct background checks on their employees
If the US did not want higher interest rates to add to deficits & inflation, it would be saying "Sorry Ukraine, Israel, & Taiwan, interest rates have risen on our $35T in debt so we cannot afford to give you any more aid." We are not saying that = inflation Higher for Longer.
The US House approved $95 billion in aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, ending months of political impasse trib.al/DMyG4wg
'Some say Powell himself is to blame for persistent inflation pressures after prematurely telegraphing interest-rate cuts, which ignited optimism in financial markets and fueled economic activity.' bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Now imagine if this is programmed, explicitly or implicitly, into super powerful AI – it could end civilization. Now, no need to imagine. It is already programmed into Google Gemini and OpenAI ChatGPT.
"Truth is subjective" is precisely the key tenet of postmodernism. This is why I refer to it as the granddaddy of all parasitic idea pathogens.
New post up on the blog (see link in bio). I exchanged this morning with my friend Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal about China and tightening rates. He has graciously allowed me to publish our exchange of his views. Thank you @gave_vincent !!
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