Benjamin M. Lavine @benjaminMlavine
I serve as the Chief Investment Strategist for Freedom Investment Management. I help our advisors understand the markets and design investment solutions. pages.freedomadvisors.com/social-media-u… Hartford, CT Joined August 2017-
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Yet one more example of a refutation of Say’s Law.
Yet one more example of a refutation of Say’s Law.
The paradox of drift: steady fx depreciation can meet the trade balance needs at the country level but unravels once done by everyone else. @JLinWins @rhemrajani9
The paradox of drift: steady fx depreciation can meet the trade balance needs at the country level but unravels once done by everyone else. @JLinWins @rhemrajani9
Latest PCE projection from @MacrostratPB. In a nutshell, not good for those hoping for an early 2nd half rate cut. substack.com/home/post/p-14…
Rates don't matter...at least for travel demand as we saw strong releases from American Airlines and Royal Caribbean. No signs of travel/leisure let-up. @EconstratPB
Rates don't matter...at least for travel demand as we saw strong releases from American Airlines and Royal Caribbean. No signs of travel/leisure let-up. @EconstratPB
Wouldn't have pegged @EconstratPB as an AM Gold junkie.
Wouldn't have pegged @EconstratPB as an AM Gold junkie.
Big tech earnings this week has wall street bulled up over signs of strong ad spend and AI-driven capex. But the 2-year is threatening 5% this morning and now sits comfortably above the SP500 LTM earnings yield. The dotcom analog is holding as we go from possible to probable.
Big tech earnings this week has wall street bulled up over signs of strong ad spend and AI-driven capex. But the 2-year is threatening 5% this morning and now sits comfortably above the SP500 LTM earnings yield. The dotcom analog is holding as we go from possible to probable. https://t.co/v8eTfQp405
Congrats to @JanvanEck3 , one of the OG ETF pioneers. @etfcom
Congrats to @JanvanEck3 , one of the OG ETF pioneers. @etfcom
Cue the @wabuffo
It’s reasoning like this that could see Powell go full Powell in 2025. Trump winning gives Powell more cover just like how Reagan gave political cover for Volker to go full Volker in the early 80s. @Convertbond
It’s reasoning like this that could see Powell go full Powell in 2025. Trump winning gives Powell more cover just like how Reagan gave political cover for Volker to go full Volker in the early 80s. @Convertbond
While I get the allure of the outrage and the pain of the small issuer, it’s wild to me everyone forgets that before Feb 2019 you paid commissions to trade ETFs essentially everywhere … until Blackrock and Fidelity struck a 0 fee deal. Distribution has been the name of the game…
Car insurance cpi jumped 2.6% in March. The problem with this kind of services inflation is that it will still keep on going in a recession.
Car insurance cpi jumped 2.6% in March. The problem with this kind of services inflation is that it will still keep on going in a recession.
A bit Krugman-ish for sure, but I get the point. There could be a lagged dynamic here as the components that drove hot March core and supercore reflect higher costs incurred when inflation spiked in 2022-23. Think insurance payouts, taxes, financing, that are being passed through
A bit Krugman-ish for sure, but I get the point. There could be a lagged dynamic here as the components that drove hot March core and supercore reflect higher costs incurred when inflation spiked in 2022-23. Think insurance payouts, taxes, financing, that are being passed through
Supercore remains a problem for the Fed. Up 0.65% M/M and 4.80% Y/Y. Main culprits: medical services (0.8%) and transportation (0.5%). @EconstratPB @rhemrajani9
Supercore remains a problem for the Fed. Up 0.65% M/M and 4.80% Y/Y. Main culprits: medical services (0.8%) and transportation (0.5%). @EconstratPB @rhemrajani9 https://t.co/V9UGpN66aU
$DAL commenting on corporate travel recovery and adding 6-7% capacity next quarter does not scream recession risk. But they don’t call these companies cyclical for nothing as they tend to add capacity at cycle tops. This feels different though with continued strength in travel.
This is the interview I referred to in our Spaces. Thank you @anasalhajji for joining us. @rhemrajani9
This is the interview I referred to in our Spaces. Thank you @anasalhajji for joining us. @rhemrajani9
🚨 Live tomorrow discussing the markets / oil / Fed and more w : @benjaminMlavine @BobEUnlimited @profplum99 @CameronDawson @anasalhajji @DLineChannel11 @DLineCap @TommyThornton @_d3f4ult Reminders 👇 $SPX x.com/i/spaces/1rmgp…
The hits on PC keep coming from @business. More fodder for @BobEUnlimited although PC's main appeal is the high Sharpe due to low mark-to-market (aka volatility laundering h/t @CliffordAsness). bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The hits on PC keep coming from @business. More fodder for @BobEUnlimited although PC's main appeal is the high Sharpe due to low mark-to-market (aka volatility laundering h/t @CliffordAsness). bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The weather gods have received Dave’s kvetching and have ‘blessed’ us with a 3 day nor’easter. Thank you Pinebrook
The weather gods have received Dave’s kvetching and have ‘blessed’ us with a 3 day nor’easter. Thank you Pinebrook
Not surprised. Trend following or momentum tends to have a high hit rate across most markets (Japan being the one exception off the top of my mind). 80%-ish give or take. The problem is the other 20% - the drawdowns can wipe out most of the gains of the 80%.
Not surprised. Trend following or momentum tends to have a high hit rate across most markets (Japan being the one exception off the top of my mind). 80%-ish give or take. The problem is the other 20% - the drawdowns can wipe out most of the gains of the 80%.
Our latest podcast: The Earnings Backdrop Remains Strong for U.S. Equities: A Conversation with Brian Mulbery from Zacks Investment Research. We discuss what trends Zacks is observing through their estimate revision lens. 3dadvisor.libsyn.com/the-earnings-b…
Michael Green @profplum99
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Angie G @MomAngtrades
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Rahul @rhemrajani9
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Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited
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O’Hare Trade • Du.. @OHare888
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24K Followers 2K Following 1) If you have no edge, correct position size is 'don't buy”. 2) Position sizing is determined by downside. 3) All great investing records employed leverage.
うめないたまえ @umenaitama67362
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📈𝓨𝓪𝓱𝓹�.. @YahpricaCapital
67 Followers 182 Following 𝓣𝓻𝓪𝓭𝓲𝓷𝓰 𝓭𝓲𝓪𝓻𝔂. 𝓜𝔂 𝓹𝓾𝓫𝓵𝓲𝓬𝓪𝓽𝓲𝓸𝓷𝓼 𝓪𝓻𝓮 𝓷𝓸𝓽 𝓯𝓲𝓷𝓪𝓷𝓬𝓲𝓪𝓵 𝓪𝓭𝓿𝓲𝓬𝓮. ——𝕀𝕂𝔼𝔸 𝕨𝕒𝕤 𝕠𝕟𝕔𝕖 𝕒 𝕡𝕖𝕟.
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TMBS |⚖️ @TMBS100
479 Followers 847 Following مستثمر ومضارب #السوق_الامريكي $SPX نظرة فنية بمبادىء أقتصادية؛ "The trend is my friend " لا نصيحة لبيع او شراء، إنما هي آراء.
Capital Flows @Globalflows
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RemoveYourNakedShorts.. @1rickoliveira
382 Followers 2K Following 8.01 APE Love the stonk GME BIGG fan of short video Going beyond MMAT digging for oil in MMTLP DFV fanboy VOCL about GTII like giving the FNGR to HEDGIES🦋
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Soft is the new Hard @DoejiStar
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1K Followers 7K Following Mountain biking, hiking, skiing & dogs. Education Coach @SchwabTrading Important Disclosures: https://t.co/gScKIit0so 3JtFGDT
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30 Followers 2K Following Eloisa ~ 24 ~ Biggest crypto casino presale👇🫐
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64 Followers 95 Following A society that puts equality… ahead of freedom will end up with neither equality nor freedom…
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395K Followers 1K Following Macro investment research at https://t.co/hQqAza8GGP Our total return index is at https://t.co/vta9eqevnU The ETF WTBN tracks our Index. biancoresearch.eth
Special Situations �.. @SpecialSitsNews
105K Followers 1K Following Managed $2B+ at Goldman. Education/Ideas: M&A Arb, Value+Catalyst, Growth, CEFs, REITs, Prefs, SPACs, Bonds, BK/Distressed. Discord team: https://t.co/Ix6dovncRx
Le Shrub🌳🔥🇺�.. @agnostoxxx
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173K Followers 1K Following Chief Strategist Simplify Asset Management | PM of $FIG | not investment advice
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55K Followers 632 Following Investor | Trader | Married Mom of 3 |$TSLA | Not in Epstein’s Blackbook | Spelling Bee Qualifier 1992 | I like my water like Kyrie Irving likes his Earth, Flat
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296K Followers 894 Following CEO/Founder and Chief Market Strategist at Hilltower Resource Advisors LLC. Boutique natural resources research firm. Geopolitics. Host @MicDropMarkets podcast
Rahul @rhemrajani9
53K Followers 303 Following I try to simplify the markets ➡️ Macro insights 🔎 | Stock market info 📊 | Tech news 💬 | 𝐅𝐫𝐞𝐞 🗞️ @TheOneRead | #Spaceshost | Not financial advice.
Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited
138K Followers 688 Following CIO at @UnlimitedFnds | PM of $HFND | Fmr IC @Bridgewater | Described as one of the few "sane" voices on #fintwit | Comments are not investment advice
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57K Followers 3K Following Managed Fidelity Overseas Fund, #1 mutual fund in USA. Former Peter Lynch assistant. Barron’s Round Table. Founded two $1b+ hedge funds. “KNOW WHAT YOU OWN.”
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134K Followers 331 Following DampedSpring active macro & beta @2Graybeards for beta. Both for investor education, Brevan Howard, Bridgewater, Salomon, Dad of 4. Go Penn, No tweet is advice
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140K Followers 264 Following Speculation is the search for truth in price and time. Not investment advice - just personal views. Blog at https://t.co/DD2iUKbdLz
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94K Followers 2K Following GS Commodities Trader➡Canyon Cvt/Cap Arb➡Akanthos Multi-Arb/Distressed➡Kao Family Office🏦Globetrotter✈ Headbanger🤘Star Wars Fan🌌 Mixologist🍸Diver🤿
Danielle DiMartino Bo.. @DiMartinoBooth
292K Followers 500 Following CEO & Chief Strategist, QI Research LLC, Fmr Federal Reserve insider, Economist #FedUp https://t.co/HD8LtvuXJ8, https://t.co/QpwfxheMSJ
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308K Followers 420 Following Combining Social Media and Investment Research to Build your Wealth | Goldman Sachs Analyst → CEO | 5000+ Hours of Spaces Hosted
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162K Followers 534 Following Keynote Speaker & Woodworker Everything Energy Daily Energy Report: https://t.co/upw1loHeK3 Weekly: https://t.co/LfUHIpXsWu https://t.co/oCC6irfqv5 #Oil_History
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9K Followers 1K Following now: having conversations about AI. before: Thiel Macro, @NRO, @Yale. opinions belong to those who love them.
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6K Followers 1K Following "Macro for Civilians". Searching for acorns in the market for 30 years. Finance observations. (https://t.co/mgOvPYwOAi). IBWOC Platinum Tier.
🖕🏖️ Makeabuck.. @Makeabuck2
1K Followers 26 Following 20 yr old activist investor. substack and newsletters delivered for real investors. My toy models are better than yours. #bigR4L™️
MagicMuffinman @MuffinmanMagic
3K Followers 63 Following 90% shitposting / 10% research Nothing I say is advice for anything I am a muffin after all!
Macro “KING LEEROY�.. @MacroTactical
23K Followers 1K Following Elite || markets are just positions. macro thinker. intraday cross asset. Simply Effective
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Forward Guidance @ForwardGuidance
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5K Followers 54 Following To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield. Light as a feather, firm as a rock, flexible as water. Simple works best! Market Yoga!
𝐄𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜�.. @EffMktHype
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DoubleLine Channel 11 @DLineChannel11
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47K Followers 1K Following Founded in ‘55, we offer investment solutions, including ETFs. Tweets by vaneck intern™🪶 Interactions ≠ endorsements. Disclosures: https://t.co/Z3FWkV2SAZ.
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Rev Cap @rev_cap
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Raging Capital Ventur.. @RagingVentures
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3K Followers 958 Following Construction Economic Analyst/Author, Instructor, 30yr estimator, past runner, still skier, dogdad, granddad. PSU. Teach astronomy. Blog https://t.co/59SmXauUUJ
James Lavish @jameslavish
117K Followers 1K Following reformed hedge-fund manager | ex-@yale hockey | drafted by bruins, landed on wall street | author of the💡Informationist newsletter simplifying finance for all
John Downs - Mortgage.. @AdvisorJohn
4K Followers 960 Following Follow Me For Real-Time Housing Data 🏘️ I enjoy saying the silent part out loud 🫣Financial Crisis Survivor 📉 Exercise 🥜🏃♂️🚴🏼💪
Wes Crill @WCrill
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Nicholas | Unusual Wh.. @NicholasFNS
21K Followers 804 Following | @unusual_whales Edu + Media host | | https://t.co/82srGXBy20 | Flow data is time sensitive. || (╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻ ||
Andrew Opdyke @Dropdyke
318 Followers 520 Following Economist at First Trust Portfolios, Hope College '07, Northwestern Kellogg MBA '16 (Go Cats!) Liverpool Football fan.
Matthew C. Klein @M_C_Klein
55K Followers 719 Following Founder of THE OVERSHOOT and UN/BALANCED | co-author of TRADE WARS ARE CLASS WARS | For speaking: https://t.co/bD8a12V37O@beehiiv Oversubscribed in an hour , incredible work team . Kudos @denk_tweets and the rest of the crew 🔥 Hopefully get an allocation :)
The US consumer does not want to hear your opinions about being weak.
April ends with another indication that incomes are still rising pretty strongly.
@EconstratPB Said it on Friday! x.com/BobEUnlimited/…
While everyone squints at the inflation numbers in today's report, the more important takeaway is the sustainability of the income-led expansion. HH incomes growing at ~6%, spending is growing at the same rate & despite low savings rates, borrowing is subdued and wealth is up.
Week ahead 🎞️: ▪️ Consumer confidence Tue ▪️ ADP jobs reports and JOLTS job openings Wed ▪️ 🚨 US Fed FOMC Wed ▪️ 🚨 Non-farm payrolls Fri ▪️ Earnings: $SOFI $AMZN $PYPL $SMCI $AMD $AAPL $COIN $NET $PINS $QCOM $ETSY $MA $SQ $DKNG ▪️FREE newsletter: —> TheOneRead.com
🚨 Join us tomm as we discuss the markets ahead of FOMC w : @benjaminMlavine @CameronDawson @profplum99 @MomAngtrades @TommyThornton @DLineETFs @DLineChannel11 Reminders 👇 x.com/i/spaces/1mrgm…
Aging well.
I hate being on the other side as Bob bc I’ll prob get my ass handed to me, but here goes: No recession in 2024.
That’s it. I’m shorting ya-yo futures and going long the Colombian sovereign.
Inflation fear-mongers refuse to acknowledge this progress
The quarterly core PCE data point to an underlying trend right now in the high-2s. The monthly data suggest something a touch firmer--3%. Given the head fake we got on the downside in 2023, not confident in a reacceleration story yet, but inflation progress is slowing. /1
Low 3M inflation in 2023 H2 gave a false signal of where trend was. Likewise, *for now* we should take the firm Q1 with a grain of salt. A simple YY, or a more sophisticated approach that filters out typical noise, yield similar answers: 2.8-2.9%, so ~ 2 1/2-3% w/ upward bias.
@benjaminMlavine @MorganStanley @CRUDEOIL231 @anasalhajji @rhemrajani9 Refining margins are robust. There is always a seasonal transition from diesel to gasoline consumption. x.com/oilheadlinenew…
321 crack spread over $30
@benjaminMlavine @MorganStanley @CRUDEOIL231 @anasalhajji @rhemrajani9 It should include oil on water
everyone relax. consumption & fixed investment components of GDP were very strong.
Real GDP growth came in at 1.6% in Q1, softer than expected. But that appears to be driven by weakness in volatile components, especially net exports. Private domestic final purchases--"core GDP" made up of consumption & fixed investment--grew 3.1%, a very strong print.
This was the signal published Monday morning. We didn’t get the Vix pop. But we sure as f*k got long before tomorrow. In plain English. Not hedged with bullshit.
Ok, that after hours move brought my account back to ATHs. The two weeks of steep bear market erased. Thank you @EconstratPB for BTFD signal.
Hopefully this calms the nerves of the stagflation people. Doubt it bc it’s a bizarro cult.
Real GDP growth came in at 1.6% in Q1, softer than expected. But that appears to be driven by weakness in volatile components, especially net exports. Private domestic final purchases--"core GDP" made up of consumption & fixed investment--grew 3.1%, a very strong print.
I’m all about the AM Gold 😂
Wouldn't have pegged @EconstratPB as an AM Gold junkie.
#CFAHartford Education Luncheon | May 23rd | Capital Grille “Finding Signal Through the Noise: Trends in Today’s Fixed Income Landscape” RSVP: buff.ly/3Vw92bB 🌟 Event Sponsor: T. Rowe Price Guest Speaker: Thomas Heidenberger, CFA VP, T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc.
Rate my cutlets. (Pardon the Montessori valentines from my kids).
🚨 Update on $SPY : regained 5k level and bounce at 20d. $SPX If we hold here, 5050 next spot to break. Peak downside IMO is at the 50d or 4600. $TWTR fintwit prob loses it if we see that drop. 📊 by: @KrutzkyTrades
Paul has the most ironic and hilarious takes that are generally spot on. Give him a follow. Looking fwd to meeting up at jazz fest!
Cartels would strap your nuts to a car battery and kidnap your kids for the keys if 1 Bitcoin was that expensive. You would live in fear constantly.
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