Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory

Portfolio Mgmt * Macro-Quant Research * Unique insight into Market & Risk morphology * Uncorrelated alpha * Uncorrelated investment strategies * Not advice morpho.substack.com New Zealand Joined August 2015

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Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory

a month ago

FOLLOW THE MONEY Tariffs are the biggest protection racket Politicians say they're acting to protect local industry. But truth & politics are unlikely bedfellows. Tariffs are simply a tax grab. It's the government looking after itself. open.substack.com/pub/morpho/p/f…

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Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory

a month ago

Got this from X (artist formerly known as Twitter). In early days, there was sharing & exchange of ideas. Now it's just a few large "channels" b/c ppl follow who ppl follow. Social media is dead Do you remember when you joined X? I do, & I remember when it died #MyXAnniversary

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Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory

a month ago

If you haven't developed your own process of researching economic information & have just relied on federal institutions & financial media, it's probably too late for you. The old data was flawed, but greater obfiscation has now arrived. Narrative has officially displaced data.

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Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory

a month ago

FAN FICTION Stock market amateurs taking an existing work of fiction & creating new stories In the short-term, the long-term doesn’t go away (speculators need to learn this). In the long-term, the short-term is forgotten (ppl can be crazy for a long time) open.substack.com/pub/morpho/p/f…

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Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory

2 months ago

A CLAYTONS RESILIENT ECONOMY The resilient economy you have when you don't have a resilient economy While the Mag 7 hold up the stock market, they are also holding a veil over the U.S. economy in their pursuit of AI dominance open.substack.com/pub/morpho/p/a…

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Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory

2 months ago

Ladies & Gentlemen, I give you the Saylor Cupidity Index, a measure of market sentiment & willingness to speculate as revealed by schemer activity leveraging cupidity via their latest get-rich-quick idea that provides a thrilling ride but ultimately comes to nothing (if not less)

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Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory

3 months ago

ZERO-G DRIFT Newtonian economics Buying & selling is an external force that can be applied to markets. But gravity remains ever-present. Gravity in the context of financial markets is determined by the mass of the underlying economy. open.substack.com/pub/morpho/p/z…

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Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory

3 months ago

Did we predict conflict between Iran & Israel 2wks ago? No. We merely pointed out the propensity for higher oil prices b/c the market had pushed oil too low. Any catalyst would work. Our subscribers knew. #oott #oil, #oilandgas, #energy, #crudeoil, #petroleum, #oott #oilprice

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Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory

4 months ago

STATIC ECONOMY 50 shades of white noise The flat economy of the last 2.5 years is not caused by politicians just as economic growth isn't. It is households & businesses having less free cash flow because the cost of servicing their debt has risen. open.substack.com/pub/morpho/p/s…

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Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory

5 months ago

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SERVICE R.I.P. Pax Americana The world has benefited from the role that the US has held in global affairs, both in the realms of politics & economics. But the U.S. is stepping down. The future could look ugly compared to the last 80yrs open.substack.com/pub/morpho/p/t…

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Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory

6 months ago

CATALYST FOR CATACLYSM The stage is set Every economic cycle ends w/ the raising of interest rates. At this point, conditions are fragile in the realm of economics & sometimes all it takes is a catalyst to create a chain reaction that tips everything over open.substack.com/pub/morpho/p/c…

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Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory

7 months ago

AMERICAN ECONOMIC EXCEPTIONALISM We all like to believe that we're the best because we're better at being better, but are we? - American vs Spanish exceptionalism - Context is essential for interpreting markets - Valuations of stocks & bonds open.substack.com/pub/morpho/p/a…

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Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory

7 months ago

THE DISSING OF INFLATION Yo! Yo! Let's keep it real ... *beat box* ... "Higher inflation is misinformation..." My Top 10 Diss Charts in relation to U.S. inflation. Keeping it real! Diss-inflation, y'all! open.substack.com/pub/morpho/p/t…

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Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory

8 months ago

LABOR PAINS We live in a Braxton Hicks economy where all contractions are fake news Quitters have quit quitting and average work hours are in recession territory, but I'm sure it's nothing. open.substack.com/pub/morpho/p/l…

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Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory

9 months ago

NEW YEAR, NEW ME Laser guidance activated Economic McCarthyism: inflation in every situation. Int. rates are ‘too scared to fall’, which is this cycle’s “too big to fail” & that’s a headwind to economic activity Every cycle is same same but different open.substack.com/pub/morpho/p/n…

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Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory

10 months ago

WHAT'S THE TIME, MR. WOLF? The gaming of risk assessment The mkt inches forward trying to eke further out gains in an attempt to beat peers at the game & be judged “winner”, taking the chance that Mr. Wolf (i.e. accountability) won’t call “Dinner time!” open.substack.com/pub/morpho/p/w…

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Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory

11 months ago

FINAL OFFENSIVE Advancing beyond re-supply In a military campaign, it’s food, fuel, munitions, and replacement troops that need to be supplied to the frontlines. In markets, it’s company earnings to support the valuations being paid. Watch your six. open.substack.com/pub/morpho/p/f…