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RVP @Renaat_VP

Sharing macroeconomics analysis as a stream of consciousness to form my personal investment thesis. Antwerpen Joined March 2020
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PlanB @100trillionUSD

3 weeks ago

IMO this bitcoin halving will NOT be different: - All bitcoin price increase will again be around the halving - Buying 6m before the halving and selling 18m after the halving (green line) will outperform buy&hold - BTC > $100k in 2024 - BTC top > $300k in 2025

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JDB @JDB_trading

a month ago

$RTY #IWM #Russell2000 #smallcaps beginnen sterker momentum te krijgen. Nog een klein tikje omhoog geeft een belangrijke doorbraak van de 61.8%. Bollinger krult inmiddels al omhoog. Ik houd deze in de gaten!

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JDB @JDB_trading

3 months ago

$RTY #IWM #Russell2000 #smallcaps beginnen sterker momentum te krijgen. Nog een klein tikje omhoog geeft een belangrijke doorbraak van de 61.8%. Bollinger krult inmiddels al omhoog. Ik houd deze in de gaten! https://t.co/SIaf6oqEbV

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JDB @JDB_trading

a month ago

$ARKK de magische vergelijking uit onderstaande tweet maakt nog altijd kans. #Amazon sloeg destijds ook 4 maanden dood na de uitbraak, net als ARKK nu doet. Maar dan moet het ergens vanaf volgende maand beginnen met stijgen. Nog altijd een interessante risk/reward voor opties.

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JDB @JDB_trading

5 months ago

$ARKK de magische vergelijking uit onderstaande tweet maakt nog altijd kans. #Amazon sloeg destijds ook 4 maanden dood na de uitbraak, net als ARKK nu doet. Maar dan moet het ergens vanaf volgende maand beginnen met stijgen. Nog altijd een interessante risk/reward voor opties. https://t.co/lL8iI3peY8

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JDB @JDB_trading

a month ago

$TLT nog altijd hetzelfde verhaal. Gevecht lijkt hier om de dominante SMA20 maand te spelen. Daarboven belangrijke lange termijn uitbraak en meer opwaartse ruimte! Tot die tijd beetje oppassen.

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JDB @JDB_trading

3 months ago

$TLT nog altijd hetzelfde verhaal. Gevecht lijkt hier om de dominante SMA20 maand te spelen. Daarboven belangrijke lange termijn uitbraak en meer opwaartse ruimte! Tot die tijd beetje oppassen. https://t.co/LIBAMnkMre

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Fernando Vidal @fernavid

a month ago

In other words, series that look like they are sure fire predictors may only look good if you look at the latest revised data. The readings that come in "live" may be far less useful than what pulling up a chart on FRED with recession shading on it suggests...

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Patrick Saner @patrick_saner

a month ago

@BobEUnlimited Was also part of Lane's presentation at the ECB watchers conference recently

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Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited

a month ago

Services inflation has globally remained stickier this cycle relative to past inflation peaks.

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Jim Bianco @biancoresearch

a month ago

Powell spoke today. Some headlines *POWELL: CAN HOLD RATES STEADY IF INFLATION DOESN'T COME DOWN *POWELL: DON'T THINK RATES WILL RETURN TO PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS *POWELL: ECONOMY NOT SUFFERING FROM THIS LEVEL OF RATES *POWELL: NO REASON TO THINK ECONOMY IN OR ON EDGE OF…

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Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited

a month ago

Today data on wage growth, inflation, and spending is a step back in the Fed's shift to easing. Each is a little too high for the Fed to think either inflation is beat or the cycle is turning. Nominal wage and salary growth pretty stable at elevated levels:

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Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos

a month ago

The core PCE index rose 0.26% in February. January's reading (initially 0.42%) was revised up to a 0.45% gain. The 12-month core PCE rate was 2.8% in February, the lowest in three years The 6-month annualized rate was 2.9% in February. It was 1.9% in December and 2.6% in Jan.

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Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos

2 months ago

The core PCE index rose 0.26% in February. January's reading (initially 0.42%) was revised up to a 0.45% gain. The 12-month core PCE rate was 2.8% in February, the lowest in three years The 6-month annualized rate was 2.9% in February. It was 1.9% in December and 2.6% in Jan. https://t.co/pIJZjCQTMT

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Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited

a month ago

Overall European inflation continues to decline and surprises lower than expectations. At this point the ECB can really see 2% or below coming into view. Even getting a nice bid on german rates on a morning when US rates are rising. Euro flat so far - still not pricing the…

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Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited

a month ago

So while inflation is clearly coming down and giving the room for the ECB to ease, the pace of expected cuts priced into the market still looks a bit rapid at this point relative to the overall underlying conditions.

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Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited

a month ago

One of the biggest sticking points Lagarde has highlighted in the last few press conferences is the concern that reported wage growth had remained too high to get back to the ECB mandate. 4Q wage data out earlier this month was much better and gives room to reduce concern:

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Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited

a month ago

The inflation problem in Europe is ebbing just as concerns are rising in the US. Italy and France both report lower than expected numbers. Spain core keeps falling. Wages are back consistent with target. While already priced in rates, the EUR/USD not reflecting this shift.

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ISABELNET @ISABELNET_SA

a month ago

🇺🇸Valuation Although a high CAPE ratio can remain elevated for long periods without prompting a market correction, historical data suggests that these periods of heightened valuations often lead to lower stock market returns 👉 isabelnet.com/?s=valuation ht @LanceRoberts $spx #spx

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Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited

a month ago

Today's mkt cap concentration in the top 10% largest US stocks has only occurred one other time in history in 1929...

RVP retweeted
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Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited

a month ago

Treasury net coupon supply rises sharply in Q2 ahead, but so far there hasn't been all that much yield pressure. Who is (and isn't!) buying treasuries recently and what they are likely to do during the coming period of record private sector duration buying needed ahead.

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Dylan LeClair 🟠 @DylanLeClair_

a month ago

The halving is coming. #Bitcoin

RVP retweeted
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Kerrisdale Capital (TradFi) @KerrisdaleCap

a month ago

GM. We're short $MSTR and long bitcoin. Report avail at kerr.co/mstr. Crypto trades often get carried away and $MSTR is no exception. The BTC price implied in $MSTR shares is now over $177k, an unjustifiable 2.6x the spot price of BTC. (1/6)

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Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited

a month ago

So many of the biggest buyers of bonds historically: The Fed, foreign central banks, commercial banks, dealers, and direct retail has all had pretty modest bond demand since the start of the year and much of this is likely constrained to pick up in the future.

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