Valentin Aufrand @ValentinAufrand
Markets & Business cycles | CFA, CFTe | Ex @IGcom @DailyFX @FXCM Paris Joined January 2010-
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Valentin Aufrand retweeted
WALMART U.S. CEO: ".. we are now seeing prices that are in line with where they were 12 months ago. I haven’t been able to say that for a few years .. The last few weeks, we've taken even more prices down in areas like produce and meat and fresh food.” $WMT @ABC…
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Valentin Aufrand retweeted
After the freakout induced by the Q1 numbers, the March print ended up in one of the "less bad" places relative to what might've been Most of the upside Q1 surprise came from the Jan revision. March was firmer than forecasts but not outrageously so x.com/nicktimiraos/s…
After the freakout induced by the Q1 numbers, the March print ended up in one of the "less bad" places relative to what might've been Most of the upside Q1 surprise came from the Jan revision. March was firmer than forecasts but not outrageously so x.com/nicktimiraos/s…
Le début de quelque chose ? $HSI
Inflation PCE core supérieure aux attentes (3,7% vs 3,4%) vs PIB largement inférieur aux attentes (+1,6% vs +2,5%) au T1. La faiblesse du PIB s'explique en grande partie par les inventaires et la balance commerciale (composantes très volatiles). L'activité éco sous-jacente…
IRA & CHIPS Act
Valentin Aufrand retweeted
Real private domestic final purchases (PDFP), which removes net exports, inventory investment, and government spending, is estimated to have grown by 3.1% at an annualized rate, a strong pace. In 2023:H2, real PDFP grew by a similar average pace of 3.2%. 2/
Avertissement donné par les opérateurs pour les autres GAFAM. Pas de marge d’erreur, surtout pour celles ayant fortement grimpé. La réaction de META lors des prochaines séances sera intéressante à suivre.
Avertissement donné par les opérateurs pour les autres GAFAM. Pas de marge d’erreur, surtout pour celles ayant fortement grimpé. La réaction de META lors des prochaines séances sera intéressante à suivre.
Valentin Aufrand retweeted
$TSLA yesterday, double miss and stock jumps $META today, double beat and stock plummets...
Valentin Aufrand retweeted
Oil and gold jump after unverified media reports of explosions in Iran, Syria and Iraq Traders have been awaiting Israel’s response to Iran’s attack last weekend, with the rhetoric between the two escalating
Le prix des *nouveaux* loyers est en hausse de seulement 0,4% sur un an (plus bas depuis 2010) aux Etats-Unis. La composante loyer de l'IPC/PCE (en retard par rapport à l'indice des nouveaux loyers) va donc continuer à ralentir au cours des prochains mois/trimestres.
Le prix des *nouveaux* loyers est en hausse de seulement 0,4% sur un an (plus bas depuis 2010) aux Etats-Unis. La composante loyer de l'IPC/PCE (en retard par rapport à l'indice des nouveaux loyers) va donc continuer à ralentir au cours des prochains mois/trimestres.
Valentin Aufrand retweeted
Some thoughts on tensions in foreign exchange markets — dollar, euro, yen and RMB. omfif.org/2024/04/tensio…
Valentin Aufrand retweeted
3/6 The world turned away from free trade decades ago. The large, persistent surpluses that have characterized global trade since the 1980s are largely the consequences of beggar-thy-neighbor trade policies aimed at boosting domestic growth a the expense of trade partners.
Valentin Aufrand retweeted
I'm sure that's fine
« Dollard is Dead »
Avec les CTA max long, un forward P/E > 20, le soft-landing devenu consensus et des enquêtes d'opinion extrêmement optimistes, il ne serait pas étonnant que le marché secoue davantage la mentalité "buy the dip" à court terme. Peut-être que le marché est (déjà) proche d'un bottom,…
Valentin Aufrand retweeted
Auto insurance in PPI, which is what goes into PCE, came in much cooler than CPI in March month-to-month: 0.1%, versus CPI's 2.6%. That difference alone will shave ~10bps off of monthly core PCE in March relative to core CPI.
Valentin Aufrand retweeted
US PPI Final Demand (M/M) Mar: 0.2% (est 0.3%; prev 0.6%) - PPI Ex Food And Energy (M/M) Mar: 0.2% (est 0.2%; prev 0.3%) - PPI Final Demand (Y/Y) Mar: 2.1% (est 2.2%; prev 1.6%) - PPI Ex Food And Energy (Y/Y) Mar: 2.4% (est 2.3%; prev 2.0%)
Valentin Aufrand retweeted
Oren Cass and I discuss the implications for the US economy of global dollar dominance. americancompass.org/michael-pettis…
Quelques réflexions sur l'IPC US d'hier: - la composante loyer (+5,7% YoY) ralentit plus lentement que ne le suggèrent les indicateurs en temps réel. - le loyer a une pondération plus faible dans l'indice PCE. - la composante assurance automobile (+22% YoY) a fortement contribué…
Valentin Aufrand retweeted
81% of private credit assets are managed by firms that also manage private equity funds and 72% of private credit deals (in North America) are sponsored by private equity firms borrowing from Peter to dividend recap Paul??🤔🤔🤔 per IMF
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