John Bromhead @macroJB
Global macro • Markets • Economics • Currencies • RStats • Context is everything Sydney Joined July 2019-
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Given the DXY 'Golden Cross' last Wed, backtested other technical signals ... unsurprisingly most are pretty rubbish.
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Data released today showed that New Zealand’s current account deficit narrowed slightly, but is still close to the widest level since the NZD was floated in 1985 (at 8.5% of GDP). It's also a stand-out on a global scale...
If the RBA does hike today, worth remembering that the initial currency reaction tends not to have much persistence... Generally the #AUD move is undone within a week or two.
Markets are losing faith in China’s economic recovery: the yuan is depreciating, alongside lower Chinese bond yields and industrial commodity prices. The question for CNY (and AUD) is how much bad news is in the price? We suspect a fair bit.
2023 debt 'crisis' playing out very similar to the one in 2013. In 2013, we had a US credit downgrade warning from Fitch & a week later, we had a temporary deal and big upside for the USD. This morning, we got the credit downgrade warning from Fitch.
The RBA: slow to start and quick to finish.... (admittedly they do meet more than other central banks)
With the Fed hiking 25bp, policy rates are closing in on the headline inflation rate. The deviation is still pretty wide in Europe, Japan and Australia. Does that equate to some pressure on the slow-starters: ECB, RBA and BOJ? @ANZ_Research
A week is a long time in markets. Here is the change in expected peak policy rates since last Friday. Quite remarkable.
The Australian 2-year rate differential to the US is now at its lowest point since the currency floated back in 1983. Major headwind for the #AUD.
What is the hardest G10 currency to forecast? Based on the average consensus error, GBP takes the cake. AUD and NZD are middle of the pack.
In February, Australia has now had misses on: employment, wages, GDP, monthly CPI. Perhaps not so surprising it is dead last on the economic surprise index ranking for the G10. Hard for the #RBA to ignore.
Inflation is surprising to the downside pretty much everywhere in the G10 -- except Australia.
Following yesterday’s slightly more hawkish than anticipated #RBA statement, market expectations for the terminal cash rate have shifted back towards 4% @ANZ_Research
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