Patrick Hill @PatrickHill1677
Editor: The Future Economy - analysis of the real economy, markets, new economy, indicators, labor in new capitalism. Former executive at HP, Genentech, Okta thefutureconomy.com California, USA Joined March 2017-
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Rebounding markets have weathered fears. - Yet 'pivot party' is over. Fed likely to keep rates higher longer. @jam_croissant @johnauthers #stockmarket #AAPL #NVDA #AMZN #OptionsTrading #FOMC @AnnTrades bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Consumer Real Retail Sales Decline Indicates Weakness In GDP - h/t @LanceRoberts notes retail sales adjusted for inflation at recession lows, & consumers hurt by high interest rates. Weak GDP print confirms the shift. @jam_croissant @johnauthers @AnnTrades $SPX $QQQ #StockMarket
Gold’s record-setting rally this year has puzzled market watchers, and the explanation may lie in China - Interesting speculation.@jam_croissant @johnauthers @michaellebowitz @AnnTrades @Mayhem4Markets #XAU $GOLD #GOLD $SPX $QQQ #NVDA #AMZN bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Small Businesses Send Out Warning Retail Sales Likely to Fall - h/t @LanceRoberts notes small business sales decline indicates likely fall in Real Retail Sales (adj for inflation) = consumer spending falls = GDP decline. @jam_croissant @johnauthers @michaellebowitz #NVDA #META
SPX/ES Touched 100 DMA Over Nite - a Break May Put, 200 DMA in Play at 4674. Mkt complacency is being tested. h/t @warrenpeace77 for passing this insight along. 2 wars out of control has an economic impact. @jam_croissant @johnauthers $SPX $QQQ #NVDA #AAPL #AMZN #META #MSFT
SPX/ES Touched 100 DMA Over Nite - a Break May Put, 200 DMA in Play at 4674. Mkt complacency is being tested. h/t @warrenpeace77 for passing this insight along. 2 wars out of control has an economic impact. @jam_croissant @johnauthers $SPX $QQQ #NVDA #AAPL #AMZN #META #MSFT
Bull Mkt In Jeopardy - Bearish Engulfing Candle Violated with SPX Friday Close at 5123 Near 50 DMA at 5111. Chaikin Money Flow Continues Negative. More Selling Likely. @jam_croissant @johnauthers @michaellebowitz @AnnTrades @Mayhem4Markets $SPX $QQQ $VIX #stockmarkets $AAPL $NVDA
Fed Insider: Fed Rate Cuts Are Now ...If Not Just When - as noted: Middle East War out of control = oil price surge, WW freight index up 75% since Nov. Inflation is likely building. @jam_croissant @michaellebowitz @johnauthers @AnnTrades #NVDA $SPX $QQQ wsj.com/economy/centra…
Extreme Market Swings Dominate as Hot Economy, Oil Feed Anxiety - increase of $13Tr in stocks gives a boost to the economy- Fed likely to delay rate cuts. @jam_croissant @johnauthers @michaellebowitz @AnnTrades #NVDA $SPX bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Insights on low vol. h/t Brent @spotgamma - Today’s vol maybe just the beginning with VIX jump 13%! @jam_croissant @johnauthers @AnnTrades @michaellebowitz #NVDA
Insights on low vol. h/t Brent @spotgamma - Today’s vol maybe just the beginning with VIX jump 13%! @jam_croissant @johnauthers @AnnTrades @michaellebowitz #NVDA
Consumers hit by 36% food inflation from 2019. Plus in SF Area gas jumps from 6 mo. avg $5.59 premium to $6.26 posted today. Inflation is sticky with gas prices surging. wsj.com/business/retai… @jam_croissant @AnnTrades @michaellebowitz @LanceRoberts @johnauthers $SPX $QQQ #FOMC
Gaza War Out of Control, Oil Prices at $85 & 10 yr at Nov High 4.36% - Rally maybe topping. @jam_croissant @michaellebowitz @AnnTrades @Mayhem4Markets @johnauthers $SPX $QQQ #StockMarket #OptionsTrading #FOMC
Gaza War Out of Control, Oil Prices at $85 & 10 yr at Nov High 4.36% - Rally maybe topping. @jam_croissant @michaellebowitz @AnnTrades @Mayhem4Markets @johnauthers $SPX $QQQ #StockMarket #OptionsTrading #FOMC
Money Flows & Relative Price Strength Indicate Possible Topping in the SPX - Chaikin Money Flow (lower panel) dived in March, negative last week 1st time since Nov., RSI continues to decline as mkts hit new highs. @jam_croissant @AnnTrades @johnauthers @michaellebowitz $SPX $QQQ
35% Reduction in Stock Buybacks Coming That Support Markets - @LanceRoberts notes; as corp policies call for blackout period from 2 wks end of qtr thru 48hrs after earnings are publicly announced. Stocks face headwinds. @jam_croissant @michaellebowitz @AnnTrades @johnauthers
Brent @spotgamma notes the recent SPX lows at OPEX & VIX expirations, 20 MA is at 5095 a solid breakdown there will likely send mkts into ‘risk off’ mode. @jam_croissant @johnauthers @michaellebowitz @AnnTrades @Mayhem4Markets $SPX $QQQ $VIX #FOMC #OptionsTrading $NVDA
Brent @spotgamma notes the recent SPX lows at OPEX & VIX expirations, 20 MA is at 5095 a solid breakdown there will likely send mkts into ‘risk off’ mode. @jam_croissant @johnauthers @michaellebowitz @AnnTrades @Mayhem4Markets $SPX $QQQ $VIX #FOMC #OptionsTrading $NVDA
JPM - Momentum Crowded Trade At 2000 & 2008 Peaks - warning traders all on one side. @jam_croissant @AnnTrades @Mayhem4Markets @johnauthers @Moorewealthal @DiMartinoBooth #FOMC #StocksToTrade #options $SPX $QQQ $VIX #ES_F #NQ_F #SPX #QQQ
SPX Topping Indicated By RSI Falling - over the past 3 mos. & NVDA dives after hitting 975 now -3.33% on day. @jam_croissant @michaellebowitz @LanceRoberts @AnnTrades @Moorewealthal @Mayhem4Markets @johnauthers $SPX $SPY $QQQ $VIX #FOMC #StocksToWatch #optiontrading #ES_F
Does Interest Rate Pain Explain the Consumer Sentiment Gap? Consumers are hit with 12 -17% on most essential services & goods since March 2020; they don’t get to exclude food and fuel costs like the Fed. @jam_croissant $SPX $QQQ #FOMC #Stocks bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
US Economic, Market Outlook: Possible Stagflation Would Be Stocks-Negative JPM - supports our point on recent sticky inflation & decline in consumer spending. @michaellebowitz @LanceRoberts @Moorewealthal @AnnTrades $SPX markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us…
Markets & Mayhem @Mayhem4Markets
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What a beautiful post.
I once had a mentor tell me “if you want to grow your career, you’re going to have to move”. She was right. For that career. I live in a small, secluded town in the mountains. 6 hrs from Denver, 3.5 hrs from Albuquerque. In late 2016, I had an amazing professional (and…
Being constantly bearish guarantees you will be right ... some of the time. It's a strategy known as "Burrying" ... as in Michael Burry. But according to WSJ you can make an average annual gain of 34% buying $SPX if you use the "UnBurry" technique. $QQQ $TQQQ $IWM $VIX
Off the desk today but this is the options flow picture: negative. So far it appears longer dated puts coming in (purple) with 0DTE(teal) a smaller component. 2:30 has been the 0DTE power hour….
. Relief rally this week but $SPX $QQQ $IWM won't exceed Jul high. . $VIX may start rising again starting around 8/24 . This sets stage for a big fear spike that may take VIX up to zone 22 - 23. . Then bull is recharged timingstockmarket.com/home/2023-0814
We're seeing another big intraday reversal. Just the latest reminder that 0DTE traders and market makers have returned to dominate the tape @spotgamma marketwatch.com/story/trading-…
The corresponding charts from the @WSJ
$VIX is building a base to surge, but VIX is tricky. It's likely to keep repeating the cycle of spike >> drop >> base until it gets up to 21 - 22 zone. My inner bull is excited for VIX to spike high. It will be a low-risk setup to scale back into long $SPX $QQQ $TQQQ $IWM
VIX Likely to Surge in Aug & Sep - Note the rise in Aug -Sep tracks stock seasonality price declines. h/t @thedailyshot @spotgamma @jam_croissant @AnnTrades @Mayhem4Markets @michaellebowitz #VIX $VIX $SPX $QQQ #SPX500 #StocksToBuy #OptionsFlow #optionstrade #stockstowatch
It's all about the consumer. Stimulus-related excess savings versus the trend have been depleted. realinvestmentadvice.com/stimulus-and-c…
“I’ve never been more sort of intellectually tormented. You look at some of these charts, it could be sugar futures, it could be whatever. The charts look incredible. Incredibly bullish. You don’t want to get short that chart." bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
"Simply put, investors will not be willing to pay an above-average valuation for what will seem like below-average profit growth." realinvestmentadvice.com/the-end-of-an-…
This call trading is getting a bit nuts, as depicted in the following charts. Yesterday was the highest SPX call volume ever! At first look - its not "0DTE" (see next slide)...
The S&P closed 2+ standard deviations above its 50-DMA for 5 straight days recently. Prior times it reached these levels since 2022 ended up being short-term peaks. Read more: bespokepremium.com/interactive/po…
Always essential listening. Rarely completely explicit as to what is going to happen (but today @jam_croissant came close), 🥐 focuses instead with physicist-like clarity on the forces, processes and positioning at play. tdameritradenetwork.com/video/cem-kars…
VIX OpEx and equity OpEx will be the two key events this week, but note also that Powell is scheduled to speak on Friday. $SPX $QQQ $TQQQ $IWM $VIX
Roads stretch out, endless, Yet in stillness, I remain, Journey to nowhere. ...until expirations next week