High_hopes @scratches2k5
Chicago, IL Joined March 2021-
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Seems we can’t seem to get far from this level…at least not yet.
“A game-changing spy thriller.” Experience the six-episode event, Marvel Studios’ #SecretInvasion, streaming this Wednesday on @DisneyPlus.
Paper prices are slumping and mills are cutting production, a worrying sign that an economic slowdown is already under way trib.al/V2DQU2e
Lots of notables in Fed Chair Powell’s remarks at his press conference including a shift in the balance of policy risk: from prior concerns of being too aggressive to the current worry of doing too little. Underpinning this is—finally—better appreciation of the inflation dynamics
I think the best trade I’ve ever made is locking in a 2.87% mortgage rate 😂
Honestly is it just me or this is the saddest Powell presser I’ve ever listened to? You can tell the Fed is just exhausted from this pertinent inflation and they are nowhere close to being done. Nothing dovish- just frustration, hawkish and exasperation.
The Fed’s 3 month treasury constant maturity minus federal funds rate is at the highest level for the year. There’s a stronger argument for 100bps than 50bps. However, I still think 75bps is what they’ll deliver. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T3MFF
$TLT lows, $DXY highs, $SPY flatline. Something has to give Wednesday.
Dow Jones set to have its best month in half a century! Thank you, President Biden.
Hear me out for a second…so even in 2008, where the DOW had over a 60% drawdown ad you can see, it never bounced back over 14% in a single month after that 2008 bear market. Are you following my reasoning yet? Good… $DIA $SPX $DJI
Response to COVID taught consumers that when the going gets tough, the govt will send them money.
@MasterPandaWu The Dow Jones is down 9.5 pct YTD during a period with the most rapid interest hikes, QT and the biggest losses on Treasuries since 1785ish. I am so old that I remember what inflation felt like in the 80’s & 90’s and with a big bank deposite rate at 0 i am in lack of words
There it is, the iconic Dow is record overbought life of data. Gamblers are crowded into record overbought late cyclicals while mega cap Tech goes bidless.
Apple was the only mega cap Tech company that escaped this quarter unscathed. Which makes it the most overowned company in human history. Today was the biggest rally in two years.
I don’t get excited daily moves in market! I get excited about bullish trends.
No, the Fed won’t move their inflation target to 3-4%. Why? If you play as a striker and don’t score a goal for an entire tournament, you won’t regain credibility by moving down 3 leagues to score again. You will lose your credibility once and for all.
The Dow on track for its best October since its creation by Charles Dow in the late 19th century, per MarketWatch.
Teelaws @Teelaws13533
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15K Followers 600 Following AKA "The Bond Girl", Head of Fixed Income Strategy @SaxoBank Alumni @Northeastern and @LSE@David_Dierking it’s actually the 3rd time. the first woopty after the vertical leg up on the left third of the chart was the 1st time. the BOJ cannot defend the yen any longer, macro has taken over.
8 months ago: “If $JPY breaks 158 and start running wild, that will be the signal” At that time $JPY was trading at 145 and everyone stampeding into #Bullish $JPY trades because of #BOJ hike expectations Fast forward….. 🤷🏻♂️
What if shorting $JPY becomes the next bubble / #FOMO trade? 🥶 Look at the typical bubble chart, after a consolidation lasted more than 30years what if we just saw the “First Sell Off”? 👀 If $JPY breaks 158 and start running wild, that will be the signal 🚨 👀
@BitcoinToSaveUs Bitcoin is an algorithm backed by dollars . Like tulips, it has no effect on the real economy .
It's use now is effectively ZERO. Could initiate mass exodus .
EFFECTIVE TUESDAY, DTC TO ASSIGN 100% HAIRCUT TO ALL CRYPTOCURRENCY INVESTMENTS⚠️ FIRMS WILL NO LONGER BE ABLE TO UTILIZE CRYPTO AS COLLATERAL, INCLUDING ETFS AND OTHER SPOT PRODUCTS.
@DsrPrivate You roll a 20 sided die then choose puts or calls. Market dragon lights them on fire. Did anyone notice he's talking faster than normal? Pain zone. I wish Oliver would ask him how he makes his money
@ozzy_livin @SchwabNetwork @jam_croissant @OJRenick When was the last time Cem said something that came to fruition? You guys idolize him like a bunch of high school kids
Furbonacci is the way to go!
@jeuasommenulle Purrfectly 👇 moar Furbonacci. LFG! @INArteCarloDoss
Retail bought $10bn of stocks this week. That’s 99% of all time weekly buying. 98% of their buying was in the SPY and Tech ETFs and single names. It was the single biggest week of retail buying since January Tight financial conditions…
@DsrPrivate @Geoffmoore1029 The higher rates stay up here without relief, the more we advance to a weakening economy, which is very different than last year. Pain is a function of severity multiplied by time.
I will never tell you what to trade. Your view is yours. I am treating rallies as a byproduct of flows and the reflexivity baked into market sentiment. I am fading anything near 5100-5150, and reevaluating if we close next week > 5150
@WatcherGuru Republic First's collapse is likely just the beginning. It's going to be a bumpy ride.
@FedGuy12 It’s never a pain trade because most people are always long.
I'm sorry, did you say energy prices are down? They're up 36% since Jan '21. Sure, they're down from the record high in Jun '22, but they aren't down anywhere near pre-pandemic levels or where they were in Jan '21:
I don't know who needs to hear this, but MoM PCE growth not seasonally adjusted was 0.84% in March.
@AtlantaFed So the FOMC is looking at inflation indicators nudging higher, unemployment down to 3.8%, strong employment/income/spending growth, and forecasts revised higher. In their paradigm, rate cut talk is now in the rear view mirror?
Tinfoil hat theory time. Ueda officially stopped defending the Yen today. Yellen refused the FX intervention, so now the BOJ will reduce US treasury holdings until Yellen tapps out into the May 1st QRA announcement. Plaza Accord 2.0 will happen this week.