Parliament Research LLC @ParlCap

6/6 That is how we use unusual theme flow inside Parliament: not as a blind directional call, but as an alert to map the structural moat, causal input drivers, and the bull/bear debate before earnings hit the tape. Explore the full ontology at parliamentresearch.com.

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

5/6 The Bear Narrative (Volume Lag + Cost Stickiness): The counter-bet is that recent revenue growth leaned on M&A while organic volumes face private construction headwinds and sticky unit costs. If Q3 EBITDA conversion lags again, pre-earnings blocks are institutions derisking.

4/6 The Bull Narrative (Margin Expansion + Reflation): In Parliament's causal graph, positives are IIJA highway funding and reshoring/data-center buildouts, while negatives are diesel and liquid asphalt costs. Softer crude plus 5-8% pricing power could expand profit per ton.

3/6 Why flow is spiking right now: This beaten-down group enters peak Q3 earnings over the next few sessions. This G3 (Reshoring & Industrial Policy) theme has just 5 direct members and pre-earnings institutions are already positioning

2/6 First, the economic mechanism: Crushed stone is heavy and cheap, so transport costs make every quarry a local monopoly. Zoning blocks new pits near metros, letting owners of permitted reserves raise price per ton above inflation even when construction volumes dip.

1/6 "Construction aggregates local quarry franchises" sits at the top of unusual theme flow on Parliament today. Block flow tells you institutions are repositioning across a 5-name basket (like VMC and MLM), not which way they are betting. Here is the bull vs. bear exercise.

Memory is one of 59 themes in our AI Compute & Semi Capex sub-pillar, alongside HBM Supply Allocation and CXL Memory Expansion. That sub-pillar is last of 29 on our nowcast, -17.3% in a month. Long contracts, short price memory.

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

Eliant Capital @eliant_capital

a day ago

China’s largest tech firms are reportedly signing long-term DRAM supply agreements extending out to 2035. Clearly, they don’t anticipate the memory shortage being resolved anytime soon.

1 11 202 17K 27

@hendry_hugh The washout is real in our data. AI Compute & Semi Capex ranks 29th of 29 sub-pillars, with only 7% of its 59 themes up over 1M. Neocloud GPU Capacity Leasing and Memory Supercycle both sit inside that drawdown.

@KobeissiLetter One wrinkle: Index Concentration Risk still shows a +0.8 block-flow z on about $1.2tn notional, so size is still trading the megacaps as equal-weight wins. Leaders are Quality Cash Flow and Low Volatility, both with 1M rolling Sharpes above 7.

@TimmerFidelity Theme-level it's even sharper: Memory Supercycle -14.5% and AI Capex -14.2% over 1M, while Insurance Underwriting Cycle runs a 6.8 1M Sharpe. Money isn't leaving equities so much as leaving the AI hardware chain.

Track the live Growth & Inflation quadrant, base-effect hurdles, 29 macro sub-pillars, and weekly/monthly market commentary—this and more, all with a differentiated and proven alpha lineage, free with registration at parliamentresearch.com

Published data and market pricing sit in two different quadrants right now. Data says Slowdown: Real GDP 2.2% YoY (-0.4, vs 3.9% Q3 hurdle) and Core PCE 3.0% (-0.2, 0.17%/mo vs 0.23% hurdle). Markets price Reflation: 10Y breakeven 2.34% (+13bp 3M) and XLY vs XLP +0.5%.

@LizAnnSonders Yes, and underneath, higher yields are being paid to float, not punished. Insurance (+8.4% 1M, 87% breadth) and Banking & Payments (+5.5%, 84%) top our 27 sub-pillars, while Debasement & Hard Money is -11.5% with 8% breadth.

@RaoulGMI The loop may hold, but the market isn't paying its suppliers yet. AI Compute & Semi Capex is -17.3% over 1M and Power Grid & Nuclear -14.6% over 3M. And Tech/AI capex runs +0.33 with Reshoring over 52 weeks: one buildout bet, not two.

@charliebilello Yes, and the skepticism is sharpest at the supplier layer. Our AI Compute & Semi Capex sub-pillar is -17.3% over 1M with 7% of names rising, last of 27. Software & Agentic AI is only -1.1% and still +4.6% over 3M. Spenders vs. sellers.

Jamie Dimon to a country that pulled its gold out of New York: you have three armies within 400 miles, while gold in America is protected by two oceans and the US military “If we have the strongest military in the world and the strongest economy in the world, we will be the preeminent reserve currency. It is those two things.” “I was in a country somewhere in the Middle East, and also in Europe, and the people said, we took our gold out of the vaults in New York City and moved it to our country. You know what I said to him? I said, you have three armies within 400 miles who can come take your gold.” “That’s the real world. You’re not thinking clearly about safety. That gold is protected by the Atlantic, the Pacific, the United States military, the rule of law.” “But if we are not the preeminent military and economy, you will see our reserve status come down.”

@robin_j_brooks Equities seem to agree. Our Oil, Gas, LNG & Refining sub-pillar is flat over 3 months (-0.04%), with about half its names up in the past month. Stocks aren't paying for $117 Brent, which reads like a risk premium, not a new floor.

@BobEUnlimited @ulf_huse The market seems to be pricing that gap, just not in the hyperscalers first. Our AI Compute & Semi Capex sub-pillar is -12% over 3 months and Power Grid, Nuclear & Transition -15%. The capex supply chain is being marked down before the spenders.

@LizAnnSonders Yes, and underneath tech it isn't one trade. Our AI Compute & Semi Capex sub-pillar ranks last of 27, down 17% in a month with under 7% of names up. Software, Agentic AI & Cyber is still +4.6% over 3 months. The financing worry is hitting the builders.