MacroMarketsDaily @macro_daily
Charts, charts, charts. Sign-up for our mail list: https://t.co/x6GCZglV0X Joined May 2019-
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The fall in the ISM services prices index in March more than offset the rise in the manufacturing index, causing an average of the two to drop back again. Still historically consistent with lower inflation, but that's been the case for 12 months now so we'll see
US consumers don't seem to be paying much attention to the stock market, with the Conference Board measure of confidence dropping back this month
German IFO survey remained extremely weak in February
Surprise surprise, the renewed strength in the stock market has left CEOs feeling more confident
China's deflation has gathered pace, partly due to lower food prices, but core CPI inflation is barely above zero at 0.4%
The ISM manufacturing index should soon be back above 50
The German IFO is now the weakest since the pandemic and implies it will be a rough year for the economy again
Nothing to get excited by in the latest China credit data. Although the 12-month credit impulse is positive, that mainly reflects developments in mid-2023. The six-month measure is marginally negative
Chinese exports slowing recovering, perhaps now past the worst
New year, new economy? The ISM surveys continue to suggest that the economy's strong run in 2023 will not be sustained
Most interesting part of the JOLTS data is the further fall in the quit rate. Now lower than pre-covid, and suggests wage growth will trend lower
The worst of the credit contraction in the eurozone is now behind us. While 12-month measures of credit growth are still weak, on a six-month basis the credit impulse has now returned to positive territory. Better times for the economy may be ahead
Housing starts surged again in November and continue to do a bit better than trends in new home sales might suggest
There will be little cheer in the new year for Germany according to the Ifo
Ongoing deflation in China, with larger annual declines in both consumer and producer prices compared to the previous month
Some welcome declines in the UofM survey inflation expectations measures - finally reflecting the drop back in gasoline prices
Average earnings growth unchanged at 4.0% YoY and 3m rate down a bit, but the stronger MoM gain of 0.4% and 0.2%-point decline in the unemployment rate back to 3.7% are not exactly what markets need to see to justify pricing in a rate cut as soon as March
The near-term outlook is looking a bit weaker again in China, with earlier bounce in the PMIs proving short-lived - both manufacturing and services sectors now basically stagnating
According to the BEA, economic growth has either been really strong for the past year and accelerated further in Q3 (GDP), or the economy is still no bigger than it was two years ago (GDI) 🤷♂️
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Aaron Klein @AaronKlein10x
82K Followers 108 FollowingIt’s a serious issue. The components of inflation that are going up are fantastically lagged and insensitive to/driven by rate increases, eg OER/banking/insurance, but we should have expected that. With motor vehicle insurance as an example, we’ve now “caught up” to used vehicle…
Can we finally get a mea culpa from Krugman, MMT clique & other transitory truthers? Would be congratulating themselves like crazy rn if data were good, despite 2 yrs too late. PISS POOR analysis & forecasting, confidently issued w/ political motives & no actual insight. OWN IT
Something that bothers me. CB officials point to labour mkts, which look much healthier than in 2022. This "proves" policy is tight & rules out a second wave. Plus it means they get the credit, for acting decisively. But: - lot of vacancies were destroyed as economy normalised…
USD rallies on BOJ raising rates
lol yes
BoJ tectonic shift in one chart, amazing isn’t it? Ht @fwred
@ClausVistesen I’m convinced that at this point they’re all just trolling Lagarde for getting the job ahead of them
Concerning as the CB is considered a leading indicator.
US consumers don't seem to be paying much attention to the stock market, with the Conference Board measure of confidence dropping back this month
That 2015 forecast looking pretty good. 🤓
There's no recession in Germany. It's outright depression...
German IFO survey remained extremely weak in February
@MichaelAArouet @macro_daily For the real issues: Germany had been a bit too dependant on car manufacturing, which has some problems with Chinese competition, ev transition, high production cost on a rather price competitive product
@MichaelAArouet @macro_daily The German stock index DAX is very strong despite bad news on the economic front. That's something positive from Germany that Germans can be proud of.
@CavaggioniMario @MichaelAArouet @macro_daily CBI surveys don't tally with UK Pmis either.
@MichaelAArouet @macro_daily Current assessment point to same level of recession. Hard to explain vs PMIs...
@CavaggioniMario @macro_daily Thank you for sharing
Just to put things in perspective: German Ifo index drops to its lowest level since 2020. Pessimism is now fully back in Germany as new supply chain disruptions and a train drivers' strike increase risk of yet another Q1 with a contracting economy, while #DAX works around ATH...
The German IFO is now the weakest since the pandemic and implies it will be a rough year for the economy again
Honestly, has there been anything positive coming from Germany recently? What happened with this formerly so successful country? Chart @macro_daily
The message from PPI is that core PCE will not come in nearly as firm as core CPI did. Using the inputs from CPI/PPI, we estimate core PCE of 0.2% MoM. Over the last 12 months, it is core PCE inflation is likely to come in below 3.0%.
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