Alfredo Pinel @APMacro
Ex-Head of Research @BravosResearch | Ex-Portfolio Strategist at Empirical Research Partners | @ChicagoBooth MBA | Not Financial Advice Joined March 2020-
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The Treasury's foreign exchange report is out -- no fireworks (as well, most countries weren't intervening to hold their currencies down last year or early this year), but it does preview some significant methodological changes 1/x
Interesting recent work by the St. Louis Fed on generational net worth: stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy… Generation X individuals (i.e., born between 1965 and 1980) have substantially higher inflation-adjusted net worth at age 30 than Baby Boomers and Millennials. Gen Xers came out on…
Difficulty in finding workers has been a prevalent issue reported by businesses in the U.S., but also in Europe. As a result, despite weakness in Europe, managers don’t want to lay off hard-to-find workers and find themselves short-staffed if demand picks up. Given that…
ISM Manufacturing PMI for May was reported today at 48.7, down from the 49.2 level recorded in April and below expectations of 49.5. The ISM reading implies that U.S. manufacturing continued to contract last month (i.e., readings below 50 imply contraction; above 50 imply…
Covid was shock for developed economies’ fiscal burden. The U.S.’ fiscal response to the pandemic was about 25% of GDP in additional spending and foregone revenue. Investors are worried that interest rates will continue moving structurally higher in coming years given higher…
Even when stripping out global fluctuations in food and energy prices, local core inflation across countries still rose together in the post-pandemic years. Why? Globalization may be at the heart of it. Interesting new work from the Federal Reserve Bank Cleveland shows that…
Recent work by the New York Fed decomposes the post-Covid global core inflation (i.e., excluding food and energy prices) into common and country-specific factors. While global core inflation peaked in 2022, disinflation has been slowing down lately. It’s being held back by…
The Fed runs a survey on the labor market that asks consumers about the chance they’ll be working in a full-time job after the age of 62. The pandemic led to a huge decline in the expectation of working after that age, falling from around a 55% chance to around 45%. An…
House prices around the world rose substantially post-Covid. Portugal saw the biggest gains. Through end-2023, house prices there were up 56%. Portugal became an attractive destination for digital nomads (i.e., remote work). Right behind Portugal is the U.S., with gains of…
Year-over-year CPI inflation for April 2024 was reported today a 3.4%. After peaking in June 2022, it’s decelerated by 5.7 pp., which has been good news for the Fed. However, since July 2023 the inflation rate has gotten stuck above 3%. Post-Covid inflation has proven the…
S&P 500 EPS growth is forecast to accelerate later this year. Some of that is expected to come from a rebound in cyclical sectors like materials, energy, industrials, and financials. Health care’s EPS are expected to bounce too. On the other hand, EPS growth in tech and…
The volume of world merchandise goods exports has rebounded this year. They’re now growing at a 2% year-over-year rate as of February (the most recently-reported data point). The nascent recovery in exports is being driven by an explosion of shipments from China. The story is…
The San Francisco Fed just updated their estimate of post-pandemic excess savings (i.e., how much households have saved above expected based on pre-pandemic trends). The big stock in savings has helped keep household spending strong amid a high inflation rate post-Covid. The…
The consumer has proven less rate-sensitive amid the Fed’s rate tightening than in prior episodes. That may be because the household debt service ratio remains historically-low despite the big rise in rates. That's partly explained by households deleveraging significantly after…
The ISM Services PMI for April reported today came in at 49.4, below estimates of 52 and March’s reading of 51.4. It registered the first contraction since December 2022 (readings below 50 signal contraction over the month). That’s in contrast to the ISM Manufacturing PMI, that…
Through April 30th, S&P 500 tech companies have reported year-over-year revenue growth in Q1 ’24 of 8.7%, a tick down from the 11.4% seen in Q4 ’23 but much faster than the S&P 500’s 4% growth rate. Since ‘23, S&P 500 tech firms have seen a V-shaped rebound in sales, which led…
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. house price index came out today, pointing to continued price growth from pre-pandemic levels. House prices are up nearly 50% since end-2019. House price growth registered a 6.4% year-over-year growth (aligned with analyst estimates). That…
The University of Michigan Consumer Survey released today continues to point to terrible conditions for buying a house. That’s because mortgage rates haven’t come down, and house prices surged post-Covid. Historically, conditions improved post-recessions as the Fed cut rates.…
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